ABCL · Forward model · Bull case
The Bull case, 28 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
AbCellera reports TWO revenue lines in 2026 — research fees and licensing/royalty — and this model copies those, then adds a third line the company does not report: ABCL635 product sales, delayed, zeros through 2026 Q2. FY2025 still printed a separate milestone line; Q4 2025 licensing $37.169M is the remainder after research $7.684M so $44.853M reconciles, and is flagged estimated. Jazz $84M and Vertex $28M are deferred cash, not Q2 P&L. Company operating loss $62.8M is internal R&D, not a −1,550% margin on $4M. R&D $46.0M and G&A $13.9M sit in corporate programmes through 2029 Q4, adjacent to the first 635 dollar. Capex $2.1M because the plant is built. netCash is June cash+marketable $540.1M plus $187M offering proceeds; no funded debt. Government funding of ~$110M is not cash. Shares are 306.5M at June 30 plus 17.4M new shares plus 3.1M pre-funded warrants. Tax 0% while they lose money. 635 start, patients and net price are assumed: Phase 3 is not dated, there is no list price. Base is Veozah FY2025 actual ~$309M. The 250k-patient ceiling is the named-case expansion cap, not 12 million prevalence and not a 500k–1.5M blockbuster.
Shares this page's scenario. Driver and horizon edits stay in your browser — the recipient sees the published model.
Latest: $219M (2033Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $4M |
| 2025Q2 | $17M |
| 2025Q3 | $9M |
| 2025Q4 | $45M |
| 2026Q1 | $8M |
| 2026Q2 | $4M |
| 2026Q3E | $4M |
| 2026Q4E | $5M |
| 2027Q1E | $5M |
| 2027Q2E | $5M |
| 2027Q3E | $6M |
| 2027Q4E | $6M |
| 2028Q1E | $6M |
| 2028Q2E | $7M |
| 2028Q3E | $7M |
| 2028Q4E | $7M |
| 2029Q1E | $8M |
| 2029Q2E | $8M |
| 2029Q3E | $8M |
| 2029Q4E | $8M |
| 2030Q1E | $27M |
| 2030Q2E | $31M |
| 2030Q3E | $36M |
| 2030Q4E | $41M |
| 2031Q1E | $48M |
| 2031Q2E | $56M |
| 2031Q3E | $66M |
| 2031Q4E | $78M |
| 2032Q1E | $92M |
| 2032Q2E | $109M |
| 2032Q3E | $129M |
| 2032Q4E | $154M |
| 2033Q1E | $183M |
| 2033Q2E | $219M |
Where each case comes from
ABCL635 case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the ABCL635 column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
ABCL635 Phase 2 top-line, 10 August 2026, and the 13 August offering
- Aug 10, 2026 The study met the primary efficacy endpoints achieving statistically significant reductions in both frequency and severity of VMSM-S at week 4 compared to placebo after a single dose.
- Aug 10, 2026 The mean percent reduction at week 4 for VMSM-S frequency was 83% for the ABCL635 treatment group versus a 33% reduction for placebo.
- Aug 12, 2026 We estimate that our net proceeds from this offering will be approximately $187.0 million, excluding the proceeds, if any, from the exercise of the pre-funded warrants.
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 11.0% a year with an exit multiple of 12.0x on revenue. The horizon and sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 28 quarters | −$264M |
| Terminal-year revenue | $685M |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $446M |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 12.0x |
| Terminal value | $8.22B |
| Discounted at 11.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $3.96B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 107% |
| Enterprise value | $3.69B |
| Net cash | $727M |
| Equity value | $4.42B |
| Shares | 0.33B |
| Fair value per share | $13.52 |
| Against the deployed price of $14.59, as of | −7% |
12% for a clinical-stage name whose Phase 3 is assumed, not dated. Exit 10x trailing-year revenue now that 635 is in the DCF as cash flows — 20x would double-count the option. Base lands near Veozah's printed ~$309M year. The 250k ceiling is named-case expansion, about $1B peak at $4,000 net, not 500k–1.5M. Cash after the raise is $727M on 327M shares, about $2.22 a share, against $12.50 on the tape. Move the patient ceiling before the exit multiple. GAAP EPS is a loss. FCF this quarter is Jazz deferred revenue.
Read the other way round: at $14.59 the market is paying 13.1x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
Capex outside the verticals
Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.
Internal pipeline R&D
2026 Q3 → 2029 Q4Q2 R&D $46.0M a quarter for 14 quarters, through 2029 Q4, so Phase 3 spend sits next to the first 635 dollar in 2030 Q1. Not a percentage of $4M of partnership revenue.
G&A
2026 Q3 → 2029 Q4Q2 SG&A $13.9M for 14 quarters, through 2029 Q4. After launch, commercial cost sits in the 635 margin, not in this programme.
The projected path
The published model's 28 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.
| Quarter | Research fees | Licensing and royalty | ABCL635 | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $4M | $151235 | $0 | $4M | −51% | $3M | $61M | −$59M | −1377 | −$57M |
| 2026 Q4E | $5M | $153504 | $0 | $5M | −89% | $3M | $61M | −$59M | −1309 | −$56M |
| 2027 Q1E | $5M | $155806 | $0 | $5M | −38% | $3M | $61M | −$58M | −1169 | −$54M |
| 2027 Q2E | $5M | $158143 | $0 | $5M | +36% | $3M | $61M | −$58M | −1020 | −$52M |
| 2027 Q3E | $6M | $160515 | $0 | $6M | +32% | $3M | $61M | −$58M | −959 | −$51M |
| 2027 Q4E | $6M | $162923 | $0 | $6M | +28% | $4M | $61M | −$58M | −907 | −$49M |
| 2028 Q1E | $6M | $165367 | $0 | $6M | +26% | $4M | $61M | −$57M | −861 | −$48M |
| 2028 Q2E | $7M | $167847 | $0 | $7M | +23% | $4M | $61M | −$57M | −821 | −$46M |
| 2028 Q3E | $7M | $170365 | $0 | $7M | +21% | $4M | $61M | −$57M | −785 | −$45M |
| 2028 Q4E | $7M | $172921 | $0 | $7M | +20% | $4M | $61M | −$57M | −753 | −$44M |
| 2029 Q1E | $7M | $175514 | $0 | $8M | +18% | $4M | $61M | −$57M | −723 | −$43M |
| 2029 Q2E | $8M | $178147 | $0 | $8M | +17% | $4M | $61M | −$57M | −696 | −$41M |
| 2029 Q3E | $8M | $180819 | $0 | $8M | +16% | $5M | $61M | −$56M | −671 | −$40M |
| 2029 Q4E | $8M | $183532 | $0 | $8M | +15% | $5M | $61M | −$56M | −648 | −$39M |
| 2030 Q1E | $9M | $186285 | $18M | $27M | +253% | $16M | $2M | $14M | +305 | $9M |
| 2030 Q2E | $9M | $189079 | $22M | $31M | +291% | $19M | $2M | $16M | +344 | $11M |
| 2030 Q3E | $9M | $191915 | $26M | $36M | +336% | $22M | $2M | $19M | +390 | $12M |
| 2030 Q4E | $9M | $194794 | $32M | $41M | +389% | $25M | $3M | $23M | +444 | $14M |
| 2031 Q1E | $10M | $197716 | $38M | $48M | +79% | $30M | $3M | $27M | +135 | $16M |
| 2031 Q2E | $10M | $200681 | $46M | $56M | +82% | $35M | $3M | $32M | +139 | $19M |
| 2031 Q3E | $10M | $203692 | $56M | $66M | +85% | $42M | $4M | $38M | +143 | $22M |
| 2031 Q4E | $10M | $206747 | $67M | $78M | +88% | $49M | $4M | $45M | +146 | $26M |
| 2032 Q1E | $11M | $209848 | $81M | $92M | +91% | $59M | $5M | $54M | +149 | $30M |
| 2032 Q2E | $11M | $212996 | $98M | $109M | +93% | $70M | $5M | $65M | +152 | $35M |
| 2032 Q3E | $11M | $216191 | $118M | $129M | +95% | $83M | $6M | $77M | +155 | $40M |
| 2032 Q4E | $12M | $219434 | $142M | $154M | +97% | $100M | $7M | $93M | +158 | $47M |
| 2033 Q1E | $12M | $222725 | $171M | $183M | +99% | $119M | $8M | $111M | +160 | $55M |
| 2033 Q2E | $12M | $226066 | $206M | $219M | +101% | $143M | $10M | $134M | +162 | $64M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | $1.51 | Initial model. Two disclosed 2026 revenue lines, R&D and G&A as dollar programmes, ABCL635 the named case not a delayed launch. |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.86 | Add ABCL635 as a delayed unit vertical, first revenue 2030 Q1, Veozah-actual analog. Horizon 28. Exit 10x. Programmes through 2029 Q4. |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.18 | Tape $12.50. 635 ceiling 250k class-expansion cap; 17% ramp keeps base near Veozah's printed year. Named case is 250k-patient dollars. Terminal margin 60%. |