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AAPL · Forward model · iPad · Bull case

What has to happen in iPad

Model as of

This page changes iPad inside the complete AAPL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

AAPL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $382.09 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $5.92B 3% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $42.43B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The installed base keeps compounding and the guide is conservative, as the June quarter's guide proved to be. Every geographic segment grew double digits, Greater China grew 22.4% after 28.1% the quarter before, and iPhone is guided to mid-teens growth into the September launch. What this case does NOT reach is a re-rating on Siri AI - that is the named case - and it does not assume Apple recovers the 50.06% June gross margin, roughly two points of which the company itself attributed to tariff refunds.

iPad

Basis quarter$6.19B
Final quarter$5.92B
Implied CAGR−1%
Final revenue mix3%

$6,191M and the only category that shrank in the basis quarter, down 5.9% year over year in a quarter where every one of Apple's five geographic segments grew double digits. It was also named among the lines the September supply constraints will hit. No unit or price disclosure exists, so this is a growth driver on the reported line, carrying a derived seasonal index whose December factor is the clearest thing in its history.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $6.95B Reported
2025 Q4 $8.60B Reported
2026 Q1 $6.91B Reported
2026 Q2 $6.19B Reported
iPad hardware net sales
Sequential growth −3.5%/qtr decaying toward +0.3% Deseasonalised trend: the printed -5.9% year-over-year decline plus the named September supply constraint.
iPad

Latest: $5.92B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $6.40B
2025Q2 $6.58B
2025Q3 $6.95B
2025Q4 $8.60B
2026Q1 $6.91B
2026Q2 $6.19B
2026Q3E $6.54B
2026Q4E $7.89B
2027Q1E $5.99B
2027Q2E $5.67B
2027Q3E $6.11B
2027Q4E $7.49B
2028Q1E $5.78B
2028Q2E $5.53B
2028Q3E $6.02B
2028Q4E $7.45B
2029Q1E $5.79B
2029Q2E $5.58B
2029Q3E $6.10B
2029Q4E $7.59B
2030Q1E $5.92B
2030Q2E $5.72B
2030Q3E $6.28B
2030Q4E $7.83B
2031Q1E $6.11B
2031Q2E $5.92B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The six quarters are the disclosed iPad line from the Form 8-K 'Net sales by category' footnote; only the forward trend rate is ours.
  • Seasonality [Q1 0.931, Q2 0.894, Q3 0.973, Q4 1.203] is derived from this line's own printed history. Derived, not assumed: each of the two full four-quarter windows in the printed history (2025 Q1-2025 Q4 and 2025 Q3-2026 Q2) gives a factor of value over window mean, the two are averaged per calendar quarter and normalised to average 1.0. A shape is only asserted where the amplitude clears the disagreement between the two windows by at least 2x. iPad's amplitude is 0.309 against a maximum between-window disagreement of 0.068, a ratio of 4.6.
  • iPad was explicitly named among the categories affected by the September-quarter supply constraints, which the company guided to increase significantly sequentially. The -3.5% deseasonalised trend puts September at $6,503M, -6.5% year over year, close to the -5.9% the line just printed.
  • Margin and capex intensity are the uniform Products-level assumptions; Apple discloses neither a per-category gross margin nor a per-category capital expenditure figure.
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