AAPL · Forward model · Services · Bull case
What has to happen in Services
Model as of
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Services
$30,739M, 28.1% of revenue at a disclosed 75.62% gross margin, and the reason the whole company earns what it does - but growth decelerated from 16.3% year over year in the March quarter to 12.1% in the June quarter, and the September guide is for a REPORTED rate of about 9.6% once the guided foreign-exchange headwind is applied. Apple discloses an installed base of over 2.5 billion active devices and over 1.5 billion paid subscriptions, but both are repeated floors, not a quarterly series, so a subscribers-times-ARPU driver cannot be built from disclosure. Services carries no seasonal index.
Latest: $53.31B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $26.64B |
| 2025Q2 | $27.42B |
| 2025Q3 | $28.75B |
| 2025Q4 | $30.01B |
| 2026Q1 | $30.98B |
| 2026Q2 | $30.74B |
| 2026Q3E | $31.67B |
| 2026Q4E | $32.61B |
| 2027Q1E | $33.57B |
| 2027Q2E | $34.55B |
| 2027Q3E | $35.55B |
| 2027Q4E | $36.56B |
| 2028Q1E | $37.59B |
| 2028Q2E | $38.65B |
| 2028Q3E | $39.73B |
| 2028Q4E | $40.83B |
| 2029Q1E | $41.95B |
| 2029Q2E | $43.10B |
| 2029Q3E | $44.28B |
| 2029Q4E | $45.48B |
| 2030Q1E | $46.71B |
| 2030Q2E | $47.97B |
| 2030Q3E | $49.26B |
| 2030Q4E | $50.58B |
| 2031Q1E | $51.93B |
| 2031Q2E | $53.31B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The guidance here is read whole, and it is the correction that matters most on this page. The CFO said the September quarter reported growth rate would be largely similar to the June quarter's AFTER REMOVING the negative sequential impact of about two and a half percentage points from foreign exchange. The number that will be PRINTED is therefore about 12.1% - 2.5 = 9.6%, not 12.1%: $28,750M x 1.096 = $31,510M, which is +2.51% sequential on $30,739M.
- Services is deliberately aseasonal. Its seasonal amplitude measured across the two full-year windows is 0.044 while the windows disagree by up to 0.084 - the shape is entirely inside the noise, which fits a subscription and commission annuity.
- The 78.7% margin is the disclosed Services gross margin of 75.62% ($7,494M of Services cost of sales on $30,739M of Services net sales) plus the same uniform 3.0-point revenue share of company D&A used on the hardware lines. This is the only vertical whose gross margin Apple actually prints.
- The installed base of over 2.5 billion active devices and the over 1.5 billion paid subscriptions are disclosed floors that Apple repeats across quarters. They are context and a ceiling check - $12.30 of Services revenue per active device per quarter is a ceiling, not a point estimate - and they are deliberately not turned into a quarterly subscriber series.
- Apple publishes no sub-line split of Services in any filing, so no App Store, advertising, iCloud or licensing share appears here. In particular the Google search-default licensing payment is an undisclosed, high-margin slice of this line whose antitrust remedies are unresolved; it sits inside the terminal growth rate with no way to size or sensitise it.
- Terminal capital intensity is set at 4.0% of segment revenue against 2.5% for the hardware lines, because Siri AI and iCloud need server capacity Apple has not yet built. Apple allocates no capex by category, so this is an assumption, not a disclosure.