AAPL · Forward model · iPad
What has to happen in iPad
Model as of
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iPad
Basis quarter$6.19B
Final quarter$5.14B
Implied CAGR−4%
Final revenue mix3%
$6,191M and the only category that shrank in the basis quarter, down 5.9% year over year in a quarter where every one of Apple's five geographic segments grew double digits. It was also named among the lines the September supply constraints will hit. No unit or price disclosure exists, so this is a growth driver on the reported line, carrying a derived seasonal index whose December factor is the clearest thing in its history.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$6.95B
Reported
2025 Q4
$8.60B
Reported
2026 Q1
$6.91B
Reported
2026 Q2
$6.19B
Reported
iPad hardware net sales
Sequential growth
−3.5%/qtr
decaying toward +0.3%
Deseasonalised trend: the printed -5.9% year-over-year decline plus the named September supply constraint.
iPad
Latest: $5.14B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $6.40B |
| 2025Q2 | $6.58B |
| 2025Q3 | $6.95B |
| 2025Q4 | $8.60B |
| 2026Q1 | $6.91B |
| 2026Q2 | $6.19B |
| 2026Q3E | $6.50B |
| 2026Q4E | $7.80B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.90B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.54B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.93B |
| 2027Q4E | $7.23B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.54B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.26B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.69B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.99B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.39B |
| 2029Q2E | $5.15B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.60B |
| 2029Q4E | $6.91B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.35B |
| 2030Q2E | $5.13B |
| 2030Q3E | $5.58B |
| 2030Q4E | $6.91B |
| 2031Q1E | $5.35B |
| 2031Q2E | $5.14B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The six quarters are the disclosed iPad line from the Form 8-K 'Net sales by category' footnote; only the forward trend rate is ours.
- Seasonality [Q1 0.931, Q2 0.894, Q3 0.973, Q4 1.203] is derived from this line's own printed history. Derived, not assumed: each of the two full four-quarter windows in the printed history (2025 Q1-2025 Q4 and 2025 Q3-2026 Q2) gives a factor of value over window mean, the two are averaged per calendar quarter and normalised to average 1.0. A shape is only asserted where the amplitude clears the disagreement between the two windows by at least 2x. iPad's amplitude is 0.309 against a maximum between-window disagreement of 0.068, a ratio of 4.6.
- iPad was explicitly named among the categories affected by the September-quarter supply constraints, which the company guided to increase significantly sequentially. The -3.5% deseasonalised trend puts September at $6,503M, -6.5% year over year, close to the -5.9% the line just printed.
- Margin and capex intensity are the uniform Products-level assumptions; Apple discloses neither a per-category gross margin nor a per-category capital expenditure figure.