AAPL · Forward model · Mac · Bull case
What has to happen in Mac
Model as of
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Mac
$10,352M in the basis quarter, up 28.7% year over year and a June-quarter record on the M5 and MacBook Neo cycle - and it printed that while management was calling out advanced-node supply constraints on the same line. There is no Mac unit or price disclosure, so the driver is growth on the reported net-sales line. Mac carries NO seasonal index: across the two full-year windows in the printed history its quarter-to-quarter variation is smaller than the disagreement between the windows, so the shape is launch timing rather than a calendar.
Latest: $10.86B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $7.95B |
| 2025Q2 | $8.05B |
| 2025Q3 | $8.73B |
| 2025Q4 | $8.39B |
| 2026Q1 | $8.40B |
| 2026Q2 | $10.35B |
| 2026Q3E | $9.36B |
| 2026Q4E | $8.93B |
| 2027Q1E | $8.77B |
| 2027Q2E | $8.74B |
| 2027Q3E | $8.78B |
| 2027Q4E | $8.87B |
| 2028Q1E | $8.97B |
| 2028Q2E | $9.09B |
| 2028Q3E | $9.22B |
| 2028Q4E | $9.36B |
| 2029Q1E | $9.49B |
| 2029Q2E | $9.64B |
| 2029Q3E | $9.78B |
| 2029Q4E | $9.93B |
| 2030Q1E | $10.08B |
| 2030Q2E | $10.23B |
| 2030Q3E | $10.38B |
| 2030Q4E | $10.54B |
| 2031Q1E | $10.70B |
| 2031Q2E | $10.86B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The six quarters of history are the disclosed Mac line from the Form 8-K 'Net sales by category' footnote; only the forward sequential step is ours.
- Mac is deliberately aseasonal. Measured the same way as the seasonal lines, its seasonal amplitude is 0.115 while the two full-year windows disagree by up to 0.183 - the noise exceeds the signal, which is what a launch-driven line looks like. Asserting a shape here would encode the M5 launch as a calendar effect.
- Apple guided total revenue, iPhone and Services and nothing else. The remaining $24,824M for Mac, iPad and Wearables is the guided midpoint less those two lines at their guided rates. Mac carries the largest share of the shortfall because it just printed a record on a launch and is the line for which advanced-node constraints were named. That allocation is ours, not Apple's.
- Margin and capex intensity are the company-level Products figures applied uniformly. Apple discloses no per-category gross margin and allocates no capital expenditure by category, so any Mac-specific economics here would be invented.
- The -10% step takes Mac to $9,317M in September, still +6.8% year over year against $8,726M, and the fast decay returns the line to a low-single-digit growth trend rather than compounding the decline.