On 9 February this site published two things about SoFi on the same day: an article headlined SOFI: S&P 500 Inclusion — March 2026 the Date?, and a news entry on the company page saying inclusion speculation was intensifying for March 2026. Both hung on the 20 March rebalance. Both cited the same 53% Polymarket odds.
The rebalance happened four and a half months ago and this site had not mentioned it since. Here is what happened.
What actually happened
S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on 6 March 2026 that four companies would join the S&P 500 before the open on 23 March: Vertiv Holdings, Lumentum Holdings, Coherent and EchoStar. They replaced Paycom Software, Match Group, Molina Healthcare and Lamb Weston. SoFi was not among them and is not mentioned anywhere in the announcement.
It has not been added since. As of the most recent quarterly changeover, in June, SoFi had again been passed over — coverage on 29 June reported exactly that, with September the next opportunity for new entries. Nothing we can find indicates an off-cycle addition in the months between.
So the answer to the question our February piece asked is no, twice over.
The part we should have noticed in our own article
Our February piece listed the rival candidates. It named Vertiv.
It appears twice: in a Stocktwits poll where 58% voted SoFi the most likely Q1 addition "ahead of MicroStrategy, Vertiv, Affirm", and in the caveats, where "Other candidates (Vertiv, MicroStrategy) are also in the mix." The article had the winner on the page, ranked below SoFi by a retail poll, and treated that ranking as information.
Vertiv is a company this site covers. We published its June quarter in July without ever connecting it back to the February piece.
The composition of the four is the more useful signal. Vertiv builds data-centre power and cooling; Lumentum and Coherent make optical components for AI networking. Three of the four additions are AI-infrastructure businesses. The index went where the capital-expenditure wave went — which is the thesis this site has spent the year documenting — rather than to the profitable consumer fintech that retail sentiment favoured.
What the business did while we were not writing about it
The fundamental case in the February piece was nine consecutive profitable quarters and a $25B-plus market capitalisation. The profitability half has held and then some.
| SoFi | Revenue | Diluted EPS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 | $1,025M | $0.13 |
| 2026 Q1 | $1,100M | $0.12 |
| 2026 Q2 | $1,219M | $0.12 |
The June quarter was a record: total net revenue of $1,218.7M, up 43% year over year on the company's own comparison in its 8-K exhibit, with diluted EPS of $0.12 against $0.08. We covered that quarter when it landed — Record $1.22B Revenue, Guidance Raised — Stock Falls 10% Anyway — and the headline is the whole tension: the business kept compounding and the stock did not follow.
The market-capitalisation half has gone the other way, and this is the number that undercuts the February framing most directly. At the stored price of $17.10 against 1,205,903,044 shares outstanding, SoFi is worth roughly $20.6B. In February the same article put it at $25–26B. The company grew revenue 43% and lost about a fifth of its market value over the same stretch.
Analyst consensus has moved the same way: our stored ratings block records a Hold at a $20.90 average target across 24 analysts, attributed to S&P Global as of June 2026 — against the February upgrades it sits beside, which carried $30, $31 and $33 targets.
What our February piece got wrong, precisely
Not the eligibility analysis. SoFi did meet the technical criteria, and still does.
What was wrong was the evidence used to forecast a committee decision. Read it back and the sourcing is Polymarket odds, a Kalshi mention, a Stocktwits poll, "multiple Seeking Alpha pieces" and three anonymous posts from X — one of them "SP500 inclusion means anything less than $25 likely becomes history". It also asserted "price targets ranging from $40 to $75+ upon inclusion" with nothing attached. In 368 words it used not one figure from the twenty-two quarters of SoFi revenue and earnings data this site already held.
Its caveats section was honest — it said outright that SoFi had been speculated for December 2025 and Carvana got the slot instead — but honest caveats around a sentiment-sourced forecast still produce a sentiment-sourced forecast. Prediction markets price what traders believe about a discretionary committee. They are not evidence about the committee.
That is the correction worth publishing, and it is more useful than the outcome: eligibility is checkable and we could have checked it; timing is a judgement call by people who do not publish their reasoning, and no amount of retail conviction converts one into the other.
What to watch
September is the next quarterly changeover. The criteria SoFi satisfies are unchanged and its profitability streak has extended. What has changed since February is the market capitalisation, which is now lower — still comfortably above the unofficial threshold the February piece cited, but no longer the "$25B+" that piece leaned on.
The honest position is that we do not know whether it will be added, and neither does anyone quoting odds. The things worth watching are the ones that are actually observable: whether revenue keeps compounding at this rate, whether EPS starts moving with it — three quarters at $0.13, $0.12, $0.12 while revenue rose 19% is the number this site should be asking about — and which companies get removed, since additions are driven by who leaves.
SoFi revenue, EPS, price, shares outstanding and analyst consensus are from our stored SoFi data; the market capitalisation above is that data's stored price multiplied by its stored shares outstanding. Quarterly revenue and EPS for the June quarter are corroborated by this site's capture of the 8-K exhibit filed as accession 0001818874-26-000050, which is also the source of the 43% year-over-year figure — that comparison uses the exhibit's own prior-year figure of $854.9M, which our series now matches to the dollar after being restated across 21 quarters to the filer's own us-gaap:RevenuesNetOfInterestExpense concept. The February claims quoted above are from our February SoFi S&P 500 piece. Index changes are from the S&P Dow Jones Indices announcement of 6 March 2026, distributed via PR Newswire; SoFi's status after the June changeover is from Motley Fool coverage dated 29 June 2026.