XYZ · Forward model · Commerce Enablement · Bear case
What has to happen in Commerce Enablement
Model as of
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Commerce Enablement
Basis quarter$3.34B
Final quarter$4.29B
Implied CAGR+5%
Final revenue mix60%
The take rate on everything Block moves: Square payments, point-of-sale software and hardware, Cash App Card and Cash App Pay, Afterpay BNPL, Cash App Business and TIDAL. Half of Block's revenue and 57% of its gross profit, and the line where the cost-cutting story has to reappear as volume rather than as savings.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$3.00B
Reported
2025 Q4
$3.05B
Reported
2026 Q1
$2.94B
Estimated
2026 Q2
$3.34B
Reported
Square payments and point-of-sale softwareSquare hardwareCash App Card and Cash App PayAfterpay Pay in 4, Pre-Purchase and Post-PurchaseCash App Business accountsTIDAL and other emerging ecosystems
Units
129348/qtr
growing +3.5% per quarter
Square GPV $72,848M plus Cash App enablement volume $56,500M = $129,348M in Q2 2026. One unit is $1M of volume.
Price per unit
$25834
drifting −0.2% per quarter
$3,341.6M of revenue on $129,348M of volume is a 2.583% blended take rate. Q2 2025 was 2.575%.
Commerce Enablement
Latest: $4.29B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $2.57B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.90B |
| 2025Q3 | $3.00B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.05B |
| 2026Q1 | $2.94B |
| 2026Q2 | $3.34B |
| 2026Q3E | $3.38B |
| 2026Q4E | $3.42B |
| 2027Q1E | $3.46B |
| 2027Q2E | $3.50B |
| 2027Q3E | $3.55B |
| 2027Q4E | $3.59B |
| 2028Q1E | $3.64B |
| 2028Q2E | $3.68B |
| 2028Q3E | $3.73B |
| 2028Q4E | $3.78B |
| 2029Q1E | $3.82B |
| 2029Q2E | $3.87B |
| 2029Q3E | $3.92B |
| 2029Q4E | $3.97B |
| 2030Q1E | $4.02B |
| 2030Q2E | $4.08B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.13B |
| 2030Q4E | $4.18B |
| 2031Q1E | $4.24B |
| 2031Q2E | $4.29B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- SEASONALITY: none applied, and the evidence cannot support any. Ratio-to-centred-four-quarter-moving-average on the six disclosed quarters yields a factor for 2025 Q3 (1.025) and 2025 Q4 (1.008) and nothing at all for Q1 or Q2, because a centred window needs two quarters either side. One window per factor means the window-to-window spread is not even measurable, so two of the four factors would be invented outright. Left ASEASONAL. Derived from the actuals in this vertical.
- The volume denominator is ours, not Block's. It sums Square GPV and Cash App Commerce Enablement volume, two separately disclosed pools that can overlap where Cash App Pay or Afterpay is spent at a Square seller. That makes the 2.583% a modelling construct - but it has moved less than one basis point in a year, so it is a stable one.
- From Q1 2026 Cash App Commerce Enablement volume includes Tap to Pay GPV inside Cash App Business GPV and Block did not recast prior periods. The 2025-to-2026 volume comparison is therefore not clean, which is a second reason no seasonal shape was fitted across that break.
- Q2 2026 Commerce Enablement gross profit grew 18% year over year 'led by strength in Cash App'. Square's 13% gross-profit growth included 'approximately two points' from a one-time tariff reimbursement, roughly offsetting the lapping of a network remediation payment a year earlier.
- Neighborhoods reached sellers representing $1 billion of annualised GPV as of June, 'up over 220% from March', with over 90% of recent auto-enabled cohorts staying enabled. It is a customer-acquisition channel, not a revenue line, so it shows up here only as volume.