XOM · Forward model · Upstream · Bull case
What has to happen in Upstream
Model as of
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Upstream
Basis quarter$13.61B
Final quarter$17.54B
Implied CAGR+5%
Final revenue mix17%
ExxonMobil lifts oil-equivalent barrels and monetises most of them through intersegment transfers to Energy Products, so the reported Upstream line is only the third-party slice. Volume is disclosed every quarter and is the thing management guides to 2030; price is Brent, which nobody guides. The company itself models this segment as volume times unit earnings per oil-equivalent barrel, so a unit driver is the honest shape.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$11.82B
Reported
2025 Q4
$9.51B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$11.21B
Reported
2026 Q2
$13.61B
Reported
Crude oil, natural gas liquids, bitumen and synthetic oil sold to third partiesNatural gas and LNG sold to third partiesEquity-affiliate income, largely non-U.S. gas and LNG ventures
Units
410774000/qtr
growing −4.4% per quarter
410.8M boe in 2026 Q2: the disclosed 4,514 koebd across 91 days.
Price per unit
$33
drifting −5.5% per quarter
$33.13 per boe of reported revenue on a $104.52 Brent quarter, not the $97.58 realisation: most barrels transfer out.
Upstream
Latest: $17.54B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $7.42B |
| 2024Q2 | $12.24B |
| 2024Q3 | $12.17B |
| 2024Q4 | $12.48B |
| 2025Q1 | $12.77B |
| 2025Q2 | $10.65B |
| 2025Q3 | $11.82B |
| 2025Q4 | $9.51B |
| 2026Q1 | $11.21B |
| 2026Q2 | $13.61B |
| 2026Q3E | $12.39B |
| 2026Q4E | $12.19B |
| 2027Q1E | $12.14B |
| 2027Q2E | $12.20B |
| 2027Q3E | $12.33B |
| 2027Q4E | $12.51B |
| 2028Q1E | $12.74B |
| 2028Q2E | $13.01B |
| 2028Q3E | $13.29B |
| 2028Q4E | $13.61B |
| 2029Q1E | $13.94B |
| 2029Q2E | $14.28B |
| 2029Q3E | $14.65B |
| 2029Q4E | $15.02B |
| 2030Q1E | $15.41B |
| 2030Q2E | $15.81B |
| 2030Q3E | $16.23B |
| 2030Q4E | $16.65B |
| 2031Q1E | $17.09B |
| 2031Q2E | $17.54B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Revenue per barrel here is $33.13, not the disclosed $97.58 U.S. crude realisation: the segment line is net of intersegment eliminations, so the realisation is a price sensitivity rather than this line's unit price.
- The first projected quarter carries a 4.43% volume step down: the disclosed ~100 kbd fall in Guyana net entitlement from 3Q26 now that cost recovery is reached, plus the ~100 koebd of Qatar LNG capacity the company says stays offline. The Strait of Hormuz case is conditional and sits in the bear scenario instead.
- Units are a quarterly barrel count built from the disclosed daily rate across 91 days, so quarters of 90 or 92 days carry about a 1% counting difference the model does not correct.
- The 2Q26 U.S. natural gas realisation of $0.52/kcf against a $2.90/mbtu Henry Hub is disclosed and unexplained, far outside the $1.75 against $3.55 of 4Q25. It is not extrapolated; the disclosed $90M per $0.10/mbtu annual sensitivity is the gas lever this model relies on.
- The EBITDA margin is held at 100%, the ceiling the control allows. The brief derives 127% for the basis quarter because transferred barrels sit in the numerator and not the denominator; the $3,664M the cap cannot hold is credited to Energy Products, which buys those barrels, so consolidated EBITDA still reconciles.