XOM · Forward model · Chemical Products · Bull case
What has to happen in Chemical Products
Model as of
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Chemical Products
Basis quarter$7.05B
Final quarter$7.26B
Implied CAGR+1%
Final revenue mix7%
Steam crackers turn advantaged North American feedstock into polyethylene and other commodity petrochemicals. Sales tonnage is disclosed every quarter and the North American polyethylene marker is disclosed alongside it, so volume times revenue per tonne is both the reported shape and the one the disclosed sensitivities move.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$5.93B
Reported
2025 Q4
$5.54B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$5.61B
Reported
2026 Q2
$7.05B
Reported
Polyethylene and other commodity petrochemicalsPerformance chemicalsProxxima resin systems, pre-scale, with FID taken for a 120 kt/y Louisiana blending expansion
Units
4471000/qtr
growing +5.0% per quarter
4,471 kt sold in 2026 Q2, the lowest tonnage in the ten-quarter reconciling window.
Price per unit
$1578
drifting −11.0% per quarter
$1,577.72 per tonne at a $1,454/T polyethylene marker; reverts toward the $965-1,166 of 2025.
Chemical Products
Latest: $7.26B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $6.11B |
| 2024Q2 | $6.03B |
| 2024Q3 | $6.10B |
| 2024Q4 | $5.44B |
| 2025Q1 | $5.57B |
| 2025Q2 | $5.84B |
| 2025Q3 | $5.93B |
| 2025Q4 | $5.54B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.61B |
| 2026Q2 | $7.05B |
| 2026Q3E | $6.64B |
| 2026Q4E | $6.36B |
| 2027Q1E | $6.18B |
| 2027Q2E | $6.06B |
| 2027Q3E | $6.01B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.99B |
| 2028Q1E | $6.01B |
| 2028Q2E | $6.05B |
| 2028Q3E | $6.11B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.18B |
| 2029Q1E | $6.27B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.36B |
| 2029Q3E | $6.45B |
| 2029Q4E | $6.56B |
| 2030Q1E | $6.67B |
| 2030Q2E | $6.78B |
| 2030Q3E | $6.89B |
| 2030Q4E | $7.01B |
| 2031Q1E | $7.13B |
| 2031Q2E | $7.26B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The 4,471 kt of the basis quarter is the lowest tonnage in the ten-quarter window while revenue per tonne of $1,577.72 is the highest, so 2026 Q2 was a margin quarter and not a volume quarter. The 5% first-quarter volume growth recovers toward the 5,325 kt the segment averaged in 2025, not toward a new high.
- The model's FY2030 tonnage of 22.0 Mt falls short of the ~23.0 Mt 2030 plan. That gap is deliberate: the base case gives the plan's volume trajectory most but not all of the credit, and the bull case is where it lands in full.
- Terminal margin is set from the reported segment note, not from the disclosed per-tonne unit earnings. Unit earnings of ~$210/T on 21.3 Mt would imply about $4.5B of 2025 Chemical earnings against the $800M the four 2025 quarters actually reported, so the two measures cannot be reconciled here and only the reported one is used.
- The North American polyethylene marker of $1,454/T in the basis quarter is 92% above 4Q25's $759/T, and the disclosed sensitivity is $560M of annual earnings per $100/T, which is large against what this segment earns in an ordinary year.