WMT · Forward model · Sam's Club U.S. · Rainey case
What has to happen in Sam's Club U.S.
Model as of
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Sam's Club U.S.
Basis quarter$25.71B
Final quarter$31.18B
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix13%
601 U.S. clubs on a paid-membership model. Comp sales ex-fuel are transaction-led - transactions rose 7.0% against a 2.5% decline in average ticket in 2027 Q2 - and a large fuel component makes reported net sales swing with the fuel price: the release gives $25.7B reported against $22.1B ex-fuel, and 8.8% reported growth against 4.5% ex-fuel.
Last four quarters
2026 Q3
$23.55B
Reported
2026 Q4
$23.76B
Reported
2027 Q1
$23.41B
Reported
2027 Q2
$25.71B
Reported
Club merchandiseFuelClub-fulfilled pickup, delivery and eCommerceSam's Club Member Access Platform advertising
Sequential growth
+0.8%/qtr
decaying toward +0.8%
Ex-fuel net sales grew 4.5% YoY, about 1.1%/qtr; damped to 0.80% because the basis quarter carries fuel.
Sam's Club U.S.
Latest: $31.18B (2032Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $20.50B |
| 2024Q2 | $21.83B |
| 2024Q3 | $22.00B |
| 2024Q4 | $21.85B |
| 2025Q1 | $21.43B |
| 2025Q2 | $22.85B |
| 2025Q3 | $22.85B |
| 2025Q4 | $23.10B |
| 2026Q1 | $22.06B |
| 2026Q2 | $23.64B |
| 2026Q3 | $23.55B |
| 2026Q4 | $23.76B |
| 2027Q1 | $23.41B |
| 2027Q2 | $25.71B |
| 2027Q3E | $25.99B |
| 2027Q4E | $26.35B |
| 2028Q1E | $24.78B |
| 2028Q2E | $26.71B |
| 2028Q3E | $27.00B |
| 2028Q4E | $27.38B |
| 2029Q1E | $25.75B |
| 2029Q2E | $27.75B |
| 2029Q3E | $28.06B |
| 2029Q4E | $28.45B |
| 2030Q1E | $26.76B |
| 2030Q2E | $28.85B |
| 2030Q3E | $29.17B |
| 2030Q4E | $29.58B |
| 2031Q1E | $27.82B |
| 2031Q2E | $29.99B |
| 2031Q3E | $30.32B |
| 2031Q4E | $30.75B |
| 2032Q1E | $28.93B |
| 2032Q2E | $31.18B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Derived margin: FY2026 segment operating income of $2,442M plus segment D&A of $782M over segment net sales of $93,015M gives 3.47%, the thinnest of the three segments.
- Membership fee revenue is reported inside consolidated 'Membership and other income', not inside this segment's net sales. The Sam's Club component was $654M in 2027 Q2, but the whole consolidated line sits in the membershipOther vertical so the four verticals reconcile to reported total revenue exactly.
- Terminal capex intensity of 1.30% is above the FY2026 rate of 0.98% rather than below it, because the club-opening programme resumes; FY2025 already ran 1.34%. It is the only vertical here whose capital intensity is assumed to rise.