← WMT forward model

WMT · Forward model · Walmart International · Rainey case

What has to happen in Walmart International

Model as of

This page changes Walmart International inside the complete WMT model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

WMT forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $83.84 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $44.13B 19% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $21.29B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The CFO's own framing taken literally: the tariff refunds are not earnings, they are price investment funded in advance. John David Rainey said the operating income outlook reflects prioritising the refunds received in Q2 into customer experience and price investments in the second half, and asked investors to consider Q2 and Q3 together. This case models the reinvestment doing what it is meant to do: volume above the base case at Walmart U.S. and Sam's Club, bought with 40bps of EBITDA margin given back across every segment, on the base 17x exit. What it does not achieve is the bull case - share gain at a flat margin is worth less than mix shift at an expanding one, and the case still sits below today's price.

Walmart International

Basis quarter$35.20B
Final quarter$44.13B
Implied CAGR+5%
Final revenue mix19%

5,743 retail units across Africa, Canada, Central America, Chile, China, India and Mexico, with Walmex and Flipkart the growth engines. Reported revenue mixes real constant-currency growth with a large translation effect: currency added $1,543M in 2027 Q2 alone, 4.9 of the 12.8 points of reported growth. This vertical is projected in reported dollars at spot FX, so the driver rate is the constant-currency trend and no further translation help is assumed.

Last four quarters
2026 Q3 $33.54B Reported
2026 Q4 $35.93B Reported
2027 Q1 $35.11B Reported
2027 Q2 $35.20B Reported
WalmexFlipkart and the India operationsChinaCanadaAfrica, Central America and Chile
Sequential growth +1.2%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% Constant currency ran 7.9% YoY, about 1.9%/qtr; damped to 1.25% for the H2 deceleration Walmart guides.
Walmart International

Latest: $44.13B (2032Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $26.60B
2024Q2 $27.60B
2024Q3 $28.02B
2024Q4 $32.42B
2025Q1 $29.83B
2025Q2 $29.57B
2025Q3 $30.28B
2025Q4 $32.21B
2026Q1 $29.75B
2026Q2 $31.20B
2026Q3 $33.54B
2026Q4 $35.93B
2027Q1 $35.11B
2027Q2 $35.20B
2027Q3E $36.99B
2027Q4E $41.07B
2028Q1E $35.63B
2028Q2E $36.95B
2028Q3E $38.81B
2028Q4E $43.07B
2029Q1E $37.34B
2029Q2E $38.71B
2029Q3E $40.64B
2029Q4E $45.07B
2030Q1E $39.06B
2030Q2E $40.49B
2030Q3E $42.49B
2030Q4E $47.11B
2031Q1E $40.81B
2031Q2E $42.29B
2031Q3E $44.37B
2031Q4E $49.18B
2032Q1E $42.60B
2032Q2E $44.13B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Derived margin: FY2026 segment operating income of $5,103M plus segment D&A of $2,304M over segment net sales of $130,423M gives 5.68%. Capex intensity is the segment's own $3,197M of FY2026 capital expenditure over the same net sales.
  • Walmart does not disclose Flipkart, Walmex or China revenue quarterly inside this segment, so no country or channel split is manufactured here. The seasonal factors are the whole of what the model knows about the shape of the year.
  • Projecting a reported-dollar line is implicitly forecasting FX. The choice here is spot: the driver rate is the constant-currency trend, and a currency reversal is carried explicitly as the largest single delta in the bear case rather than left silent.
WMT model map

Explore another vertical