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WMT · Forward model · Sam's Club U.S. · Bull case

What has to happen in Sam's Club U.S.

Model as of

This page changes Sam's Club U.S. inside the complete WMT model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

WMT forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $109.01 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $31.50B 13% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $13.57B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The mix shift is the business. In 2027 Q2 global advertising grew 38%, membership fee revenue grew 17% globally and Walmart U.S. eCommerce sales grew 24%, all against total revenue growth of 5.9% - two to six times the company rate on the three highest-margin attach lines. If they keep compounding at that gap, segment EBITDA margin expands faster than the assumed glide and the market keeps paying about what it pays today. This case adds 40bps to every segment margin, lifts each growth rate, and exits at 19x rather than 17x.

Sam's Club U.S.

Basis quarter$25.71B
Final quarter$31.50B
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix13%

601 U.S. clubs on a paid-membership model. Comp sales ex-fuel are transaction-led - transactions rose 7.0% against a 2.5% decline in average ticket in 2027 Q2 - and a large fuel component makes reported net sales swing with the fuel price: the release gives $25.7B reported against $22.1B ex-fuel, and 8.8% reported growth against 4.5% ex-fuel.

Last four quarters
2026 Q3 $23.55B Reported
2026 Q4 $23.76B Reported
2027 Q1 $23.41B Reported
2027 Q2 $25.71B Reported
Club merchandiseFuelClub-fulfilled pickup, delivery and eCommerceSam's Club Member Access Platform advertising
Sequential growth +0.8%/qtr decaying toward +0.8% Ex-fuel net sales grew 4.5% YoY, about 1.1%/qtr; damped to 0.80% because the basis quarter carries fuel.
Sam's Club U.S.

Latest: $31.50B (2032Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $20.50B
2024Q2 $21.83B
2024Q3 $22.00B
2024Q4 $21.85B
2025Q1 $21.43B
2025Q2 $22.85B
2025Q3 $22.85B
2025Q4 $23.10B
2026Q1 $22.06B
2026Q2 $23.64B
2026Q3 $23.55B
2026Q4 $23.76B
2027Q1 $23.41B
2027Q2 $25.71B
2027Q3E $26.00B
2027Q4E $26.38B
2028Q1E $24.82B
2028Q2E $26.76B
2028Q3E $27.07B
2028Q4E $27.46B
2029Q1E $25.84B
2029Q2E $27.86B
2029Q3E $28.18B
2029Q4E $28.60B
2030Q1E $26.91B
2030Q2E $29.02B
2030Q3E $29.35B
2030Q4E $29.78B
2031Q1E $28.03B
2031Q2E $30.23B
2031Q3E $30.58B
2031Q4E $31.03B
2032Q1E $29.20B
2032Q2E $31.50B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Derived margin: FY2026 segment operating income of $2,442M plus segment D&A of $782M over segment net sales of $93,015M gives 3.47%, the thinnest of the three segments.
  • Membership fee revenue is reported inside consolidated 'Membership and other income', not inside this segment's net sales. The Sam's Club component was $654M in 2027 Q2, but the whole consolidated line sits in the membershipOther vertical so the four verticals reconcile to reported total revenue exactly.
  • Terminal capex intensity of 1.30% is above the FY2026 rate of 0.98% rather than below it, because the club-opening programme resumes; FY2025 already ran 1.34%. It is the only vertical here whose capital intensity is assumed to rise.
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