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WMT · Forward model · Membership and other income · Bull case

What has to happen in Membership and other income

Model as of

This page changes Membership and other income inside the complete WMT model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

WMT forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $109.01 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.74B 1% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $149M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The mix shift is the business. In 2027 Q2 global advertising grew 38%, membership fee revenue grew 17% globally and Walmart U.S. eCommerce sales grew 24%, all against total revenue growth of 5.9% - two to six times the company rate on the three highest-margin attach lines. If they keep compounding at that gap, segment EBITDA margin expands faster than the assumed glide and the market keeps paying about what it pays today. This case adds 40bps to every segment margin, lifts each growth rate, and exits at 19x rather than 17x.

Membership and other income

Basis quarter$1.84B
Final quarter$2.74B
Implied CAGR+8%
Final revenue mix1%

The consolidated 'Membership and other income' income-statement line: Walmart+ and Sam's Club membership fees plus rental and tenant income, recycling income, gift card breakage and corporate campus income. It is about 1% of revenue and the fastest-growing disclosed line - fees grew 17% globally in 2027 Q2 - and carrying it as its own vertical is what makes the four verticals sum to reported total revenue to the dollar.

Last four quarters
2026 Q3 $1.73B Reported
2026 Q4 $1.74B Reported
2027 Q1 $2.07B Reported
2027 Q2 $1.84B Reported
Walmart+ and Sam's Club membership feesRental, tenant and recycling incomeGift card breakageCorporate campus facilities income
Sequential growth +1.6%/qtr decaying toward +1.2% The line grew 11.2% YoY and fees 17% globally; 1.60%/qtr is 6.6% a year, below both, as 2027 Q1 is unexplained.
Membership and other income

Latest: $2.74B (2032Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $1.30B
2024Q2 $1.35B
2024Q3 $1.36B
2024Q4 $1.47B
2025Q1 $1.57B
2025Q2 $1.57B
2025Q3 $1.58B
2025Q4 $1.72B
2026Q1 $1.63B
2026Q2 $1.65B
2026Q3 $1.73B
2026Q4 $1.74B
2027Q1 $2.07B
2027Q2 $1.84B
2027Q3E $1.88B
2027Q4E $1.92B
2028Q1E $1.96B
2028Q2E $2.00B
2028Q3E $2.04B
2028Q4E $2.09B
2029Q1E $2.13B
2029Q2E $2.17B
2029Q3E $2.22B
2029Q4E $2.26B
2030Q1E $2.30B
2030Q2E $2.35B
2030Q3E $2.40B
2030Q4E $2.44B
2031Q1E $2.49B
2031Q2E $2.54B
2031Q3E $2.59B
2031Q4E $2.63B
2032Q1E $2.68B
2032Q2E $2.74B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The zero EBITDA margin is a construction, not a claim that this income is unprofitable. The three segment margins are computed as segment operating income plus segment D&A over segment NET SALES, and segment operating income already contains that segment's membership and other income. A non-zero margin here would double count it.
  • This vertical is left aseasonal on the research finding, not by omission: the observed shape has 9.8pp of amplitude against per-quarter window spreads of up to 4.2pp, and the Q4 factor decays 1.074 to 1.070 to 1.033 across the three fiscal-year windows. Asserting a holiday shape here would invent about a 6% bump that the data does not support.
  • Walmart does not split fees from 'other' inside this line. Segment components are disclosed - Walmart U.S. $750M, International $426M, Sam's Club $654M in 2027 Q2 - but the fee-versus-rental split inside each is not, so none is manufactured.
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