Upstart Holdings, Inc. · 2026 Q2

Consensus vs reported

QoQ and YoY are measured on the same basis as each panel's own consensus, so no panel compares two different measures.

2026 Q2 preview

Reported this quarter

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What we learned

1. It beat on revenue and missed on EPS, and most coverage picked one. $364.7M against a $352.3M FactSet consensus; $0.16 against $0.19 . Both are true of the same release, and the stock rose about 11%.
2. The cash line is a loan book, not a business. Operating cash flow of −$136.6M against capital expenditure of $2.1M , with $6.05 billion of purchases and originations of loans held-for-sale inside six months of operating activities.
3. Read the score as a range, not a reading. 3.72 this quarter against 0.31 last, 70.50 the quarter before and −26.81 the one before that. On a trailing-twelve-month basis it is 10.90 — 46.28% growth against a −35.39% cash margin. That is the number to carry.
4. The most improved line is still a loss-maker. Secured lending contribution margin reached −35%, from −96% in Q1 and −176% a year ago. The trajectory supports management's framing; the level does not yet.
5. Two metrics moved the wrong way and one of them is scheduled to disappear. Conversion rate fell to 19.7% from 21.0% while borrower acquisition costs rose 68% to $102.3M against 45% fee growth — and Upstart will stop reporting conversion rate from Q1 2027.

Read the full analysis: Upstart Returned to GAAP Profit and Burned $139M Doing It →

Coverage around this release

Estimate against reported

Estimates are the consensus we published on our own preview for that quarter; quarters we did not preview carry the reported figure only. Where a consensus was set on a non-GAAP basis, the reported column shows that same measure.

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