UNH · Forward model · UnitedHealthcare · Bull case
What has to happen in UnitedHealthcare
Model as of
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UnitedHealthcare
Basis quarter$86.02B
Final quarter$101.53B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix77%
A risk-bearing benefits business whose revenue is people served times premium per member per month, reset every 1 January. It does not grow by selling more to the same member; it grows by adding members and by the rate reset, and in 2026 management is deliberately shedding members to reprice. Membership fell 525,000 in the basis quarter and Medicare Advantage is down 965,000 since year-end 2025.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$87.07B
Reported
2025 Q4
$87.11B
Reported
2026 Q1
$86.27B
Reported
2026 Q2
$86.02B
Reported
Employer & Individual (domestic and global)Medicare & RetirementCommunity & State
Subscribers
48.5M
97.5% of a 49.8M addressable base
48,525k medical members at 30 June 2026, down 525k in the quarter (2Q26 UnitedHealthcare Customer Profile).
Addressable subscribers
49.8M
the S-curve ceiling
49.76m is the year-end 2025 base implied by the January outlook. A scaling artefact the driver needs, not a researched TAM.
Net adds
0/qtr
ramping toward 0/qtr, throttled as the base approaches the TAM
Net-add ceiling
0/qtr
what supply can deliver at full rate
ARPU
$590.88/mo
drifting +0.8% per quarter, floor $0.00
$590.88 = 2Q26 revenue $86,017M / 48,525k members / 3 months. Blended and derived; UNH discloses no PMPM.
Non-subscriber revenue
$0/qtr
growing 0.0% per quarter
Zero. Every dollar of UnitedHealthcare revenue sits inside the member-times-premium identity.
UnitedHealthcare
Latest: $101.53B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q2 | $70.23B |
| 2023Q3 | $69.85B |
| 2023Q4 | $70.81B |
| 2024Q1 | $75.36B |
| 2024Q2 | $73.87B |
| 2024Q3 | $74.85B |
| 2024Q4 | $74.13B |
| 2025Q1 | $84.62B |
| 2025Q2 | $86.10B |
| 2025Q3 | $87.07B |
| 2025Q4 | $87.11B |
| 2026Q1 | $86.27B |
| 2026Q2 | $86.02B |
| 2026Q3E | $85.61B |
| 2026Q4E | $85.59B |
| 2027Q1E | $85.85B |
| 2027Q2E | $86.32B |
| 2027Q3E | $86.93B |
| 2027Q4E | $87.65B |
| 2028Q1E | $88.44B |
| 2028Q2E | $89.29B |
| 2028Q3E | $90.19B |
| 2028Q4E | $91.13B |
| 2029Q1E | $92.09B |
| 2029Q2E | $93.07B |
| 2029Q3E | $94.08B |
| 2029Q4E | $95.10B |
| 2030Q1E | $96.14B |
| 2030Q2E | $97.19B |
| 2030Q3E | $98.26B |
| 2030Q4E | $99.34B |
| 2031Q1E | $100.43B |
| 2031Q2E | $101.53B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- 4.26% is the guided full-year 2026 operating margin - $12,000M of operating earnings on the $335,000M revenue floor, 3.58% - plus 0.68pp of pro-rata D&A. It is deliberately not the 2026 Q2 print of 4.6% operating: management has said UnitedHealthcare earnings are weighted about 75% to the first half, so the second-half quarters this model projects earn far less than the basis quarter did.
- Terminal 5.30% EBITDA is 4.62% operating, which is the level UnitedHealthcare actually printed in 2026 Q2 - the base case is that the strong quarter becomes the full-year average by 2031, not that margin keeps climbing past it.
- Membership is disclosed every quarter and is on a consistent domestic basis only from 2025; the 2023-2024 counts include South American businesses now held for sale. Revenue reconciles exactly to the three disclosed sub-lines in every quarter.
- The driver is left aseasonal on purpose. UnitedHealthcare revenue shows a Q1 lift of about 3% but the Q4 window spread of 6.0% is wider than the whole 5.7% amplitude, and the Q1 lift is the 1 January enrolment and rate reset that member-times-premium already carries.