UNH · Forward model · Optum Insight · Bull case
What has to happen in Optum Insight
Model as of
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Optum Insight
Basis quarter$5.40B
Final quarter$7.07B
Implied CAGR+6%
Final revenue mix5%
Technology, analytics and revenue-cycle services sold to payers and providers on multi-year contracts, plus Optum Financial and Optum Bank since 1 January 2026. Revenue is contract backlog converting into recognised revenue - but the company stopped publishing backlog in 2026, and no backlog-to-revenue conversion rate has ever been disclosed, so a sequential growth rate is the honest driver rather than a manufactured capacity model.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$5.32B
Reported
2025 Q4
$5.46B
Reported
2026 Q1
$5.12B
Reported
2026 Q2
$5.40B
Reported
Revenue-cycle managementPayer and provider technologyAI-enabled coding and prior-authorisation toolsOptum Financial / Optum Bank (from 1 January 2026)Alegeus (from 2 July 2026, not modelled)
Sequential growth
+0.6%/qtr
decaying toward +1.4%
0.6% a quarter holds 2H26 near $10.9B against the ~$10.5B the January floor implies, before any Alegeus contribution.
Optum Insight
Latest: $7.07B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q2 | $4.67B |
| 2023Q3 | $4.98B |
| 2023Q4 | $4.79B |
| 2024Q1 | $4.50B |
| 2024Q2 | $4.54B |
| 2024Q3 | $4.93B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.78B |
| 2025Q1 | $5.03B |
| 2025Q2 | $5.23B |
| 2025Q3 | $5.32B |
| 2025Q4 | $5.46B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.12B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.40B |
| 2026Q3E | $5.45B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.50B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.56B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.62B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.69B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.76B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.83B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.91B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.99B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.08B |
| 2029Q1E | $6.16B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.25B |
| 2029Q3E | $6.34B |
| 2029Q4E | $6.44B |
| 2030Q1E | $6.54B |
| 2030Q2E | $6.64B |
| 2030Q3E | $6.74B |
| 2030Q4E | $6.85B |
| 2031Q1E | $6.95B |
| 2031Q2E | $7.07B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- 24.13% is the guided full-year 2026 operating margin - the 16 July raise to $4,925M of operating earnings on the $21,000M revenue floor, 23.45% - plus 0.68pp of pro-rata D&A. The pro-rata allocation understates this segment specifically: Optum Insight carries most of the group's acquired intangibles, and group intangible amortisation alone is guided at about $1,345M for 2026.
- Alegeus closed on 2 July 2026, two days into the first projected quarter, and no purchase price or revenue contribution has been disclosed. It is deliberately left out of the driver rather than guessed at, so this line is understated by an unknown amount from 2026 Q3 onward. Revisit at the 2026 Q3 print.
- Contract revenue backlog was $31.1 billion at 31 December 2025 and was dropped from the Optum Performance Metrics table in both 2026 releases. It was rejected as a capacity driver because using it would require inventing a conversion rate the company has never published.
- The 2023-2024 quarters predate the Optum Financial realignment and therefore exclude Optum Bank: FY2024 recast revenue is $20,356M against $18,757M as reported, so those quarters sit roughly 8-9% below the 2026 basis. UnitedHealth published no recast quarterly figures before 2025 Q1.
- Left aseasonal: the 4.5% measured amplitude sits inside a 5.4% Q4 window spread, and what looks like a second-half lift is contract timing over a cyberattack-distorted 2024.