U · Forward model · Grow Solutions · Bear case
What has to happen in Grow Solutions
Model as of
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Grow Solutions
Mobile advertising monetisation: Unity takes a share of advertiser spend routed through its networks. The line is being rebuilt in public. The Unity Ads Network, powered by the Unity Vector AI bidding model, went from 49% of Grow in 2025 Q2 to 56% in 2025 Q4 and passed a $1bn annual run rate in 2026 Q2, two quarters early, while the legacy ironSource Ads network was switched off on 30 April 2026 and the Supersonic publishing business was sold to Tripledot Studios on 4 August 2026. The constraint is auction-model quality against a pool of advertiser spend, not capacity: Unity discloses no impressions, installs, eCPM or advertiser count, so revenue growth is the only driver the disclosure supports.
Latest: $418M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $313M |
| 2023Q2 | $340M |
| 2023Q3 | $355M |
| 2023Q4 | $319M |
| 2024Q1 | $297M |
| 2024Q2 | $298M |
| 2024Q3 | $299M |
| 2024Q4 | $305M |
| 2025Q1 | $285M |
| 2025Q2 | $287M |
| 2025Q3 | $318M |
| 2025Q4 | $338M |
| 2026Q1 | $352M |
| 2026Q2 | $389M |
| 2026Q3E | $394M |
| 2026Q4E | $404M |
| 2027Q1E | $399M |
| 2027Q2E | $418M |
| 2027Q3E | $447M |
| 2027Q4E | $459M |
| 2028Q1E | $438M |
| 2028Q2E | $445M |
| 2028Q3E | $465M |
| 2028Q4E | $470M |
| 2029Q1E | $442M |
| 2029Q2E | $444M |
| 2029Q3E | $460M |
| 2029Q4E | $462M |
| 2030Q1E | $432M |
| 2030Q2E | $433M |
| 2030Q3E | $447M |
| 2030Q4E | $447M |
| 2031Q1E | $417M |
| 2031Q2E | $418M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The wind-down is a staircase, not a decay, and it is carried as two dated level steps rather than as a growth rate. Non-strategic revenue ran $114.8m in 2025 Q1, $89.0m in 2025 Q2, $75.8m in 2026 Q1 and $60.1m in 2026 Q2, is guided to $20m in 2026 Q3 including about one month of Supersonic, and goes to approximately nil after that. At 2026 Q2 essentially all of it sat in this line: Grow Solutions $388.85m less Strategic Grow $328.955m is $59.9m of the $60.1m total.
- The single most important read-through from the 6 August 2026 call is that Vector's growth is new spend rather than recaptured ironSource spend. Jarrod Yahes: 'The sunsetting of the ironSource Ad Network had a negligible positive impact on Vector growth in the quarter with only $3 million in Q2 Vector revenue growth from ironSource customers.' That is what makes extrapolating the strategic-Grow sequential rate through the wind-down defensible rather than circular.
- Vector is carried as evidence inside this line, not as its own vertical. Its revenue is anchored in only three periods - 49% of Grow in 2025 Q2, 56% of Grow in 2025 Q4, and a 'substantially over $1 billion' annual run rate in 2026 Q2 - so 2025 Q3, 2026 Q1 and everything before 2025 Q2 would have to be invented to build a contiguous history.
- The seasonal factors are small and deliberately damped. Ratio-to-centred-moving-average on 2023 Q1 to 2026 Q2, excluding the two 2023 observations that straddle the runtime-fee crisis, gives [0.970, 0.981, 1.018, 1.031]; the spec rounds to [0.97, 0.98, 1.02, 1.03]. The naive 2025 year-mean shape of [0.93, 0.94, 1.04, 1.10] is rejected: that is the Vector ramp wearing a season's clothes. Unity has named seasonality as a Grow driver exactly once, on the 2024 Q4 print: 'The change was driven by strong seasonal demand.'
- Publisher payables were $440.7m against $388.9m of quarterly Grow revenue, which is why operating cash flow of $205.6m ran well ahead of adjusted EBITDA of $160.2m in the basis quarter. The model's free cash flow is EBITDA less capex less tax and carries no working-capital swing, so it will read below Unity's reported free cash flow in quarters when payables build.
- Three quarters here are derived rather than reported: 2023 Q4, 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q4 are the full year less the nine months in that year's third-quarter 10-Q. They are marked estimated. 2023 Q4 also carries roughly $21m of returned ironSource customer credits.