U · Forward model · Create Solutions · Bear case
What has to happen in Create Solutions
Model as of
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Create Solutions
The Unity engine and everything sold around it: Unity Pro and Enterprise subscription seats, enterprise support and strategic partnerships, cloud and hosting consumption, and non-gaming RT3D licences. Unity spent 2024 and 2025 deliberately shrinking this line by cutting professional services and non-core consumption, and it has stabilised near $155m a quarter with subscription growth offsetting the runoff. It is not the growth story; it is why the growth story has a moat, because the engine generates the runtime behavioural data the Vector bidding model trades on.
Latest: $126M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $187M |
| 2023Q2 | $193M |
| 2023Q3 | $189M |
| 2023Q4 | $290M |
| 2024Q1 | $164M |
| 2024Q2 | $151M |
| 2024Q3 | $147M |
| 2024Q4 | $152M |
| 2025Q1 | $150M |
| 2025Q2 | $154M |
| 2025Q3 | $152M |
| 2025Q4 | $165M |
| 2026Q1 | $157M |
| 2026Q2 | $158M |
| 2026Q3E | $158M |
| 2026Q4E | $157M |
| 2027Q1E | $157M |
| 2027Q2E | $156M |
| 2027Q3E | $154M |
| 2027Q4E | $153M |
| 2028Q1E | $151M |
| 2028Q2E | $149M |
| 2028Q3E | $148M |
| 2028Q4E | $146M |
| 2029Q1E | $144M |
| 2029Q2E | $142M |
| 2029Q3E | $140M |
| 2029Q4E | $138M |
| 2030Q1E | $136M |
| 2030Q2E | $134M |
| 2030Q3E | $132M |
| 2030Q4E | $130M |
| 2031Q1E | $128M |
| 2031Q2E | $126M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Unity on the basis quarter: 'Create Solutions revenue was $158 million, up 2% year-over-year. The increase was driven by increases in subscription revenue, partially offset by decreases in cloud and hosting services revenue, driven by our portfolio reset in 2025.' The growth is subscription; the drag is a consumption tail that is nearly exhausted.
- The 2025 Q2 comparative carries roughly $12m of one-time term-licence revenue. Unity said Strategic Create grew 14% year over year excluding it, against the 5% headline, so reading the basis quarter's 2% year-over-year print as the run rate understates the underlying line.
- Three quarters in this history are derived, not reported: 2023 Q4, 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q4 are each the full year less the nine months reported in that year's third-quarter 10-Q. They are marked estimated. 2023 Q4 also contains roughly $99m of Weta FX contract-termination revenue, which is why it is nearly twice the surrounding quarters and why it is excluded from the seasonality work.
- Remaining performance obligations were $494m at 31 December 2025, relating primarily to Create Solutions subscriptions, Enterprise Support and Strategic Partnerships, of which roughly $225m was expected to be recognised within a year. That is the closest thing Unity publishes to a Create backlog, and it is an annual disclosure, not a quarterly one.
- No seasonality is applied. On a ratio-to-centred-moving-average decomposition the window-to-window spread exceeds the signal in three of four quarters and the two clean windows disagree in sign on both Q1 (1.066 in 2024 against 0.968 in 2025) and Q4 (0.991 against 1.061). What looks like a Q4 lift is the 2023-to-2024 portfolio-reset decline, a trend rather than a season. Rateably recognised subscription revenue should not carry a quarterly shape, and it does not.