SKHY · Forward model · NAND flash
What has to happen in NAND flash
Model as of
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NAND flash
Non-volatile memory, 27.7% of 2026 Q2 revenue and the line that inflected hardest: revenue rose 90% quarter on quarter on a mid-50% ASP increase as enterprise SSD demand for AI inference key-value cache storage overwhelmed a supply base that had been cutting output through 2025. SK hynix (with Solidigm) was the second-largest NAND supplier at an 18.5% revenue share in 2026 Q1 per IDC. Same driver shape as DRAM - bits times ASP against a fixed wafer base - with a later capacity response: Cheongju M17's first cleanroom is scheduled for December 2028.
Latest: $24.44B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $1.11B |
| 2023Q2 | $1.47B |
| 2023Q3 | $1.59B |
| 2023Q4 | $2.17B |
| 2024Q1 | $2.89B |
| 2024Q2 | $3.40B |
| 2024Q3 | $3.27B |
| 2024Q4 | $3.09B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.12B |
| 2025Q2 | $3.10B |
| 2025Q3 | $3.27B |
| 2025Q4 | $5.08B |
| 2026Q1 | $7.60B |
| 2026Q2 | $14.41B |
| 2026Q3E | $17.07B |
| 2026Q4E | $19.42B |
| 2027Q1E | $21.38B |
| 2027Q2E | $22.96B |
| 2027Q3E | $24.16B |
| 2027Q4E | $25.05B |
| 2028Q1E | $25.66B |
| 2028Q2E | $26.06B |
| 2028Q3E | $26.28B |
| 2028Q4E | $26.38B |
| 2029Q1E | $26.37B |
| 2029Q2E | $26.28B |
| 2029Q3E | $26.14B |
| 2029Q4E | $25.95B |
| 2030Q1E | $25.74B |
| 2030Q2E | $25.50B |
| 2030Q3E | $25.25B |
| 2030Q4E | $24.98B |
| 2031Q1E | $24.71B |
| 2031Q2E | $24.44B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Same index convention as DRAM: units are 100 at 2026 Q2 and the price per index point is that quarter's NAND revenue of $14.41bn divided by 100. Bits start at the guided low-single-digit increase for 2026 Q3.
- The June quarter does NOT close on the disclosed deltas: bits +15% times ASP +55% is +78%, against actual revenue growth of +89.7%. The roughly seven-point residual is mix - eSSD and 321-layer - inside an ASP the company quotes as a blended average.
- NAND gets the harsher price path of the two lines: ASP peaks 40.9% above June 2026 in 2027 Q3 and ends the horizon 20.7% below it. The capacity answer is later than DRAM's - M17's first cleanroom is December 2028 - but the demand case is weaker too, at high-teens bit growth against DRAM's mid-20s in the company's own 2026 outlook.
- Solidigm, the former Intel NAND business, sits inside this line and is not reported separately. On 6 August 2026 the company confirmed it is reviewing measures to strengthen that business after a report of a W5 trillion pre-IPO raise, so a disposal would change this line's composition without a disclosed baseline.
- The terminal EBITDA margin is 30% against DRAM's 45%, which is an assumption, not a disclosure: no product-level margin exists in any filing. NAND revenue fell 31% quarter on quarter as recently as 2025 Q1, inside this very history.