SIEGY · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-09-01

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

NOT AN SEC REGISTRANT. Siemens AG left the New York Stock Exchange on 15 May 2014 and deregistered. It has no CIK and files no 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, 20-F or 6-K; SIEGY is an unsponsored over-the-counter depositary receipt, two of which represent one ordinary share. Every figure in this model comes from Siemens' own quarterly earnings release, a document that describes itself as a Quarterly Statement under Section 53 of the Exchange Rules for the Frankfurter Wertpapierboerse. There is no filing to reconcile against and none is missing. CURRENCY. Siemens reports only in euros and publishes no dollar translation, so every dollar figure here is ours. Each quarter's euro figures are converted at the Federal Reserve H.10 average EUR/USD rate for that fiscal quarter, from the daily DEXUSEU series: 1.07611, 1.08550, 1.07659 and 1.09868 for fiscal 2024; 1.06678, 1.05311, 1.13416 and 1.16854 for fiscal 2025; 1.16415, 1.17015 and 1.16318 for the three reported quarters of fiscal 2026. That is the same basis the series on the stock page are built on - the rate each stored quarter implies matches the H.10 average to within 0.06% - so the model and the page agree. Forward quarters hold the rate at the basis quarter's 1.16318. That is an assumption, and a consequential one: Siemens guides on a COMPARABLE basis, meaning constant currency, so a 5% move in the euro changes this model's revenue by 5% with no operating change at all. Neither the bear nor the bull case attempts to price it. FISCAL CALENDAR. The fiscal year ends 30 September. Every quarter label here is a fiscal label: 2026 Q3 is April to June 2026, 2026 Q4 is July to September 2026, and 2026 Q1 was October to December 2025. The first projected quarter is fiscal 2026 Q4, which Siemens reports on 12 November 2026. SEGMENTS ARE READ, NOT ALLOCATED. Siemens publishes per-segment revenue, profit, EBITDA, free cash flow and net capital employed in every quarterly release. Nothing in this model is an apportionment: the four operating verticals are the four disclosed segment lines, and the fifth is the disclosed Siemens Financial Services line plus the disclosed Reconciliation to Consolidated Financial Statements line, which is what makes the five foot to consolidated revenue exactly. Segment EBITDA is the final column of Siemens' own EBITDA Reconciliation table, which moves group purchase-price-allocation amortisation (EUR 237m in the basis quarter) out of the reconciliation line and into the segments before adding back EUR 708m of segment depreciation, amortisation and impairments - so the PPA is neither double counted nor dropped. No quarter is flagged estimated, because none was computed by us beyond the currency conversion and the addition of two disclosed lines. THE INNOMOTICS RESTATEMENT. Fiscal 2024 Q1 and Q2 are the restated continuing-operations figures, taken from the prior-year columns of the fiscal 2025 Q1 and Q2 releases. Siemens classified Innomotics as a discontinued operation during fiscal 2024: group revenue for fiscal 2024 Q1 was published as EUR 18,412m in February 2024 and as EUR 17,745m in February 2025, a EUR 667m difference. The four segment lines were NOT restated - every prior-year segment column in every later release matches the current-year column of the release twelve months earlier, exactly, across orders, revenue and profit - because Innomotics sat in a separate Portfolio Companies line that has since disappeared. The residual vertical absorbs the difference, which is why it prints $516m (EUR 480m) in fiscal 2024 Q1 rather than the EUR 1,147m the original release implied once its separate Portfolio Companies line is added back. THE BIGGEST THING THIS MODEL DOES NOT DO. On 12 November 2025 Siemens announced its intention to deconsolidate Siemens Healthineers by transferring 30% of the shares to Siemens' own shareholders, giving up its controlling majority in a stake it puts at circa 67%; on 17 April 2026 it said the vote would be prepared for the annual general meeting in February 2027; and the basis release quotes the chief financial officer saying binding tax decisions have been received and the spin-off can proceed as planned. If it completes, 28.7% of the revenue in this model's first projected quarter leaves the group. It is not modelled as a base shift, for three reasons: the transaction is unapproved and needs two shareholder votes, every series on the stock page behind this model is consolidated, and deleting the revenue without crediting shareholders with the Healthineers shares they would receive - no exchange ratio has been published - would misstate value rather than correct it. It is the single largest caveat on this page and it is a reason to treat the Healthineers vertical as a placeholder for a decision, not a forecast. SEASONALITY. Applied to the four operating verticals, not to the residual. Siemens' fiscal fourth quarter, July to September, is its year-end delivery quarter: group revenue rose 10.1% sequentially into it in fiscal 2024 and 10.6% in fiscal 2025, in euros, both years. A centred four-quarter moving-average test over the eleven quarters supports it outright for Smart Infrastructure (signal 0.141 against a worst window spread of 0.015) and Siemens Healthineers (0.159 against 0.014). For Digital Industries (0.115 against 0.089) and Mobility (0.124 against 0.086) the signal exceeds the spread but not comfortably, because eleven quarters give only two observations per quarter index and Digital Industries' window contains an automation destocking cycle rather than a calendar. Factors are applied to both anyway, on the stated group-wide mechanism rather than on the shape alone, and they are the weakest-estimated numbers in the model; without them the model's fiscal 2026 Q4 lands 2.1% below the guidance-implied quarter, with them 0.2% below consensus. The residual line carries none: eliminations and divestment gains have no delivery season. CAPEX. A uniform 3.1% of revenue on the four operating verticals and zero on the residual. Siemens discloses no segment capital expenditure; group additions to intangible assets and property, plant and equipment were EUR 636m in the basis quarter and EUR 1,655m over nine months, about 2.8-3.1% of revenue, so the group total is right and the split inside it is ours. Corporate overhead is set to zero deliberately: Siemens' central costs - Innovation at EUR (181)m, Governance at EUR +44m, group PPA amortisation at EUR (238)m and eliminations - are already inside the fifth vertical, and charging them again at the corporate line would double count them. The tax rate of 25.0% is the disclosed nine-month effective rate, EUR 2,304m over EUR 9,241m. FREE CASH FLOW. The FCF line inside this model is the projection engine's own construction - EBITDA less capex less tax - so it carries no working capital and no cash interest, and should not be read against Siemens' own figure. Siemens reported EUR 4,155m of free cash flow from continuing operations in the basis quarter, $4,833m, against this model's $3,090m for the first projected quarter. The difference is working capital and cash taxes, not a disagreement about the business. BUYBACKS ARE NOT MODELLED. Siemens bought EUR 2,656m of treasury shares in the first nine months of fiscal 2026, nearly double the EUR 1,455m of a year earlier, and the ADR-equivalent diluted count has fallen 2.2% across the eleven quarters shown, from 1,599.9m to 1,564.1m. The engine values the group and divides by a fixed count, so continued buybacks are upside this page does not show. NO ANALYST ROWS. Siemens is covered against its Frankfurt listing in euros per ordinary share. No dated, attributable dollar-per-ADR price target could be sourced, and converting a euro target on the ordinary share would be our arithmetic rather than an analyst's call, so the stock page carries none and this model is not compared with one.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.