SHOP
Shopify Inc.
Quarterly revenue, EPS, free cash flow, valuation, and Rule of 40 scores for Shopify Inc..
Coverage
Shopify's Best Rule of 40 Score in Five Quarters, and Its Gross Margin Kept Falling
Shopify Q2: revenue $3.58B up 34%, GMV $115.6B up 32%, free cash flow $654M at 18.3%. R40 of 51.85, best in five quarters. Gross margin fell again.
Shopify Q4 2025: $3.67B Revenue Beat, $2B Buyback — So Why Is the Stock Down?
Shopify beats on revenue and GMV, announces $2B buyback, guides to 30%+ Q1 growth — but the stock drops 9%. We break down what spooked investors and why the selloff may be overdone.
SHOP Trades ~38% Below Analyst Targets
Shares at ~$112 vs. consensus target ~$180; Simply Wall St flags undervalued by ~12%, ecosystem partnerships (AI/subscription migrations) growing despite dip.
Sharp Selloff: SHOP Down ~16% YTD
Stock plunged amid AI disruption fears in software and valuation reset after 2025 surge; analysts maintain positive long-term view on agentic commerce.
Analyst Upgrades Ahead of Earnings (Arete to Buy)
Upgraded to Buy post-selloff on strong Q4 outlook; focus on 'solid fundamentals' and agentic commerce/AI tailwinds.
1 Growth Stock Down 16% to Buy and Hold
Contrarian buy case despite YTD decline; strong 2025 momentum (32%+ revenue growth in Q3), secular e-commerce/AI tailwinds outweigh volatility.
Where the revenue goes next
Latest: $3.58B (2026Q2)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $1.51B |
| 2023Q2 | $1.69B |
| 2023Q3 | $1.71B |
| 2023Q4 | $2.14B |
| 2024Q1 | $1.86B |
| 2024Q2 | $2.04B |
| 2024Q3 | $2.16B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.81B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.36B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.68B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.84B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.67B |
| 2026Q1 | $3.17B |
| 2026Q2 | $3.58B |
Latest: $1.16 (2026Q2)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $0.01 |
| 2023Q2 | $0.14 |
| 2023Q3 | $0.02 |
| 2023Q4 | $0.34 |
| 2024Q1 | $0.20 |
| 2024Q2 | $0.26 |
| 2024Q3 | $0.64 |
| 2024Q4 | $0.58 |
| 2025Q1 | $0.25 |
| 2025Q2 | $0.42 |
| 2025Q3 | $0.58 |
| 2025Q4 | $0.48 |
| 2026Q1 | -$0.45 |
| 2026Q2 | $1.16 |
Latest: 77.1 (2026Q2)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q4 | 152.8 |
| 2024Q1 | 110.2 |
| 2024Q2 | 80.5 |
| 2024Q3 | 55.6 |
| 2024Q4 | 68.6 |
| 2025Q1 | 77.6 |
| 2025Q2 | 64.4 |
| 2025Q3 | 110.1 |
| 2025Q4 | 173.1 |
| 2026Q1 | 117.4 |
| 2026Q2 | 77.1 |
Latest: $654M (2026Q2)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $86M |
| 2023Q2 | $97M |
| 2023Q3 | $276M |
| 2023Q4 | $446M |
| 2024Q1 | $232M |
| 2024Q2 | $333M |
| 2024Q3 | $421M |
| 2024Q4 | $611M |
| 2025Q1 | $363M |
| 2025Q2 | $422M |
| 2025Q3 | $507M |
| 2025Q4 | $715M |
| 2026Q1 | $476M |
| 2026Q2 | $654M |
Latest: 1.30B (2026Q2)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | 1.29B |
| 2024Q2 | 1.30B |
| 2024Q3 | 1.30B |
| 2025Q1 | 1.30B |
| 2025Q2 | 1.31B |
| 2025Q3 | 1.31B |
| 2026Q1 | 1.30B |
| 2026Q2 | 1.30B |
Latest: $5.64B (2026Q2)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $86M |
| 2023Q2 | $183M |
| 2023Q3 | $459M |
| 2023Q4 | $905M |
| 2024Q1 | $1.14B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.47B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.89B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.50B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.87B |
| 2025Q2 | $3.29B |
| 2025Q3 | $3.79B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.51B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.99B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.64B |
Latest earnings
Company History
Post-pandemic reset emphasized margins and free cash flow; laid foundation for 2025 surge
Peak euphoria on AI integrations, merchant growth, and market share gains
Stock soared from lows ~$77 to ATH ~$179-182 on strong financials and e-commerce rebound
EPS $0.27 beat, revenue $2.84B beat; 32% YoY growth reinforced profitability story
Launched AI tools (Sidekick, agentic features, Universal Commerce Protocol); expanded to intelligent commerce OS
Stock fell to ~$119 amid market rotation and software sector pressure
Volatility ahead of earnings; narrative shifts to AI/agentic commerce as next growth driver
Pullback on valuation concerns, broader tech/AI fears, and pre-earnings caution
Key Players
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