SCHW · Forward model · Net interest revenue · Lending Gap case

The one penetration number Schwab put on its own slide rather than only saying out loud: 0.5% of clients use a lending product against a 4% industry average, defined in the slide footnote as bank loans as a percentage of total client assets at 31 December 2025. The evidence that it is already converting is disclosed and large - bank loans $50.4B to $67.0B (+33%), Pledged Asset Line balances $33.4B (+59%), margin receivables $83.4B to $165.1B (+98%). This case carries it as a NET INTEREST REVENUE-only tilt of +0.35% a quarter, which compounds to +7.2% on that line by 2031 Q2, and asks what the lending build alone is worth if every other line does exactly what the base case says. HOW IT IS IMPLEMENTED MATTERS: the engine has no scenario field for capacity additions, so this is a revenue tilt on the line rather than a larger balance sheet, and it lands between the +25% and +50% capacity-addition sensitivities the research computed ($107.19 and $110.08). Result: $107.69, essentially flat against the $108.05 tape (-0.3%), an implied 7.639x tangible book. It is deliberately a modest case: net interest revenue is 47.5% of revenue but the asset base compounds slowly, so a lending story cannot carry this stock on its own. WHAT IT DOES NOT ASSUME is any change in the net interest margin - the whole effect is volume, because the disclosed 100bp-plus spread on Pledged Asset Lines is close to the book average.