SCHW · Forward model · Net interest revenue
What has to happen in Net interest revenue
Model as of
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Net interest revenue
Interest revenue less interest expense across the whole balance sheet: $444,982M of average interest-earning assets yielding 3.96% against funding costing 0.96%, a 3.00% net interest margin, 47.5% of the basis quarter. The story inside it is a MIX SHIFT, not a rate call. A $131,126M held-to-maturity book yielding 1.73% and a $65,864M available-for-sale book yielding 2.17% are running off into bank loans yielding 4.35% (average balances $48,691M to $63,823M year on year) and brokerage-client receivables yielding 5.68% ($78,732M to $112,136M). That is why management guides the margin UP to 3.25%-3.30% by the fourth quarter of 2026 even with the forward curve ending the year at a 4.00% Fed funds upper bound.
Latest: $4.99B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2021Q4 | $2.14B |
| 2022Q1 | $2.18B |
| 2022Q2 | $2.54B |
| 2022Q3 | $2.93B |
| 2022Q4 | $3.03B |
| 2023Q1 | $2.77B |
| 2023Q2 | $2.29B |
| 2023Q3 | $2.24B |
| 2023Q4 | $2.13B |
| 2024Q1 | $2.23B |
| 2024Q2 | $2.16B |
| 2024Q3 | $2.22B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.53B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.71B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.82B |
| 2025Q3 | $3.05B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.17B |
| 2026Q1 | $3.14B |
| 2026Q2 | $3.36B |
| 2026Q3E | $3.60B |
| 2026Q4E | $3.77B |
| 2027Q1E | $3.89B |
| 2027Q2E | $3.99B |
| 2027Q3E | $4.07B |
| 2027Q4E | $4.14B |
| 2028Q1E | $4.20B |
| 2028Q2E | $4.27B |
| 2028Q3E | $4.33B |
| 2028Q4E | $4.39B |
| 2029Q1E | $4.45B |
| 2029Q2E | $4.51B |
| 2029Q3E | $4.57B |
| 2029Q4E | $4.63B |
| 2030Q1E | $4.69B |
| 2030Q2E | $4.75B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.81B |
| 2030Q4E | $4.87B |
| 2031Q1E | $4.93B |
| 2031Q2E | $4.99B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A CAPACITY driver, not a growth one, because both legs are published every quarter in the release's Net Interest Revenue Information table AND the price leg is directly guided. It is the strongest driver in this model.
- ASEASONAL. Ratio to a CENTRED four-quarter moving average over 2021 Q4-2026 Q2 gives [1.0194, 0.9644, 0.9983, 1.0180], a signal of 0.0550 against a worst window-to-window spread of 0.1219 - a 0.45:1 ratio that fails the gate outright. The apparent Q2 dip is the 2023 deposit-flight quarter (0.927), not a season.
- Seasonality is deliberately absent rather than merely untested. On a capacity vertical it would DOUBLE-COUNT: the projection engine deseasonalises only the growth driver's base and then multiplies every driver's output by the factor, so a capacity line whose capacity and price are the basis quarter's own seasonal levels would be adjusted twice.
- The 51.88% margin is the CONSOLIDATED pre-tax income margin, $3,669M on $7,072M. Schwab publishes no segment or per-line profitability, so the same margin sits on all five verticals; the split earns its place through five different REVENUE drivers, not through differentiated economics.