PATH · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-31

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

WHAT IS DISCLOSED. Both verticals are lines printed in UiPath's filed condensed consolidated statements of operations, read from each quarter's own 8-K exhibit 99.1 across thirteen quarters. Nothing is apportioned and nothing is estimated. The platform vertical is the SUM of two adjacent printed lines, Licenses and Subscription services; the services vertical is the Professional services and other line as printed. The two sum to reported total revenue to the dollar in all thirteen quarters. The ARR base, net new ARR, dollar-based net retention, the customer counts and the remaining performance obligations are disclosed figures; $1,901,211 thousand of ARR at 30 April 2026 is printed to the thousand in the 10-Q. WHY ARR AND NOT REVENUE. Reported revenue grew 17% in the basis quarter while ARR grew 12%. The difference is recognition timing: term licences are recognised UP FRONT at delivery, so a heavier licence quarter prints faster revenue growth than the recurring base earned. UiPath's own ARR definition covers subscription licences and maintenance and support and excludes professional services and perpetual licences, which is exactly why the two recognition halves sit in one vertical and the services line sits outside it. A model built on the revenue line would extrapolate the timing. This one extrapolates the base and lets the seasonality carry the calendar. WHAT IS ASSUMED. Forward net new ARR of $53.0m a quarter is UiPath's own fiscal 2027 exit-ARR guide divided by three quarters; its 0.5% quarterly growth, the 87.0% conversion rate and its 88.0% target, the 29.5% and 36.0% platform margins, the -110% and -70% services margins, the 18% tax rate, the 10% discount rate and the 4.0x exit multiple are judgements, and each carries its reasoning beside it. THE MARGIN BOUNDARY, STATED PLAINLY. The 29.5% platform margin nets to 24.1% consolidated after the loss-making services line. That sits on the non-GAAP operating margin UiPath guides for fiscal 2027 and near its adjusted free-cash-flow margin - and about 17 points ABOVE its GAAP operating margin of 6.7% in the basis quarter. The whole gap is stock-based compensation, $290.7m in fiscal 2026 and 18.0% of revenue. This model treats it as non-cash, which is the standard treatment across this repo, and for UiPath it is defensible on evidence rather than convention: the company repurchased 20.4 million shares for $243.8m in the basis quarter alone against $53.3m of stock-based compensation in the same quarter, and the diluted share count consequently FELL 3.8% year over year, to 527.8 million from 548.5 million. The buyback is more than neutralising the dilution. The model holds the share count flat and does not charge the buyback against free cash flow, both of which are conservative. WHAT THE TAX RATE IS NOT. UiPath's GAAP effective rate was 5.6% in fiscal 2026 and 45.0% in the basis quarter, and neither is a forward cash rate: both are artefacts of the valuation-allowance release that cut the allowance from $406.3m to $150.5m and produced a $202.7m non-cash deferred benefit. That single item is also why fiscal 2026 GAAP net income was $282.3m against $57m of GAAP operating income. The 18% constant used here sits between the roughly 17% of pre-tax income UiPath actually paid in cash in the basis quarter and a statutory rate as the $325.5m of loss carryforwards run down. WHAT IS NOT MODELLED. Acquisitions - WorkFusion closed 5 February 2026 for approximately $190.0m and is inside the basis quarter's actuals and inside the ARR base, but no further deal is projected or funded. The $500.0m repurchase authorised in March 2026 is a financing use of cash and is not charged as capex. There is no capital programme: UiPath has no fab, plant, data-centre estate or joint venture, and capital spending was 0.64% of revenue in the basis quarter. WHEN THIS GOES STALE. UiPath reports its fiscal 2027 second quarter on 3 September 2026, three days after this model was written, and that is the quarter management guided DOWN sequentially. The basis quarter and the reproduction target will both be superseded by that print.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.