OXY · Forward model · Jackson case

The Jackson case, 18 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-27

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Two verticals, because two segments are all Occidental reports since OxyChem closed to Berkshire Hathaway on 2026-01-02 and moved to discontinued operations. Every 2024 and 2025 quarter here is the restated continuing-operations presentation. Oil & Gas net sales plus Midstream & Marketing net sales plus eliminations equal the reported Net sales total, to the dollar, in all ten quarters from 2024 Q1 to 2026 Q2 - $8,065M at the basis quarter, from $6,882M, $1,326M and $(143)M. 2023 is excluded because the only quarterly segment figures available for it still consolidate the Chemical segment. Midstream points are marked estimated because the elimination subtraction is ours; both components are printed lines of Schedule 4. The model is built on Schedule 4 Net sales and will not agree with our stored revenue series, which mixes ASC 606 revenue with total revenues and other income; that series needs a separate repair and does not affect this model. Disclosed and copied as reported: volumes, realised prices by commodity, per-BOE costs, the full 3Q26 and FY26 guidance table, the balance sheet and the 2030 bridge. Derived and marked as such: realised price per BOE, midstream net of eliminations, segment EBITDA margins and the LTM multiples. Assumed and labelled as such: the realised-price path, terminal margins, the 10% discount rate and the 5.0x exit multiple. Corporate overhead of 2.15% of revenue is not a guess either - it is the $173M gap between basis-quarter segment EBITDA of $5,568M and the $5,395M of consolidated adjusted EBITDA that the 4.93x LTM multiple is computed on, so the model's EBITDA definition and its exit multiple use the same denominator. Interest expense is deliberately not charged against free cash flow, because debt is carried in net cash instead. That net cash figure of negative $16.59B is cash of $4,150M less principal debt of $11,814M less preferred stock of $8,287M less noncontrolling interest of $635M; principal, not the $13,743M carrying value, which is inflated by an Anadarko-era purchase-accounting premium. Management expects to redeem the preferred in 2029 and the model carries it at par, not at any redemption premium. The base case does not credit the claim under test: it reaches about $6.15B of 2030 sustainable cash flow against the $8.2B management describes, and the Jackson case is what full delivery looks like.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

Capex outside the verticals

Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.