OXY · Forward model · Oil & Gas · Jackson case
What has to happen in Oil & Gas
Model as of
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Oil & Gas
Basis quarter$6.88B
Final quarter$5.33B
Implied CAGR−6%
Final revenue mix96%
Occidental sells a disclosed number of barrels of oil equivalent at a disclosed realised price, so this line is literally volume times price. Volume is set by the development programme against a base decline management puts at roughly 25% today and 20% by 2030; price is the commodity market. Costs are quoted per BOE, so operating leverage on price is close to total: realised price per BOE rose 36% sequentially in 2026 Q2 and segment pre-tax income went from $1,017M to $2,849M on volume that moved 1,428 to 1,433 Mboed.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$5.40B
Reported
2025 Q4
$4.81B
Reported
2026 Q1
$4.97B
Reported
2026 Q2
$6.88B
Reported
US oil, NGL and natural gas: Permian, Rockies & Other Domestic, Gulf of AmericaInternational oil, NGL and natural gas: Algeria and Other International, Al Hosn, Dolphin, OmanRealised and unrealised crude oil derivative results, which settle inside this segment's net sales
Units
130761000/qtr
growing −0.2% per quarter
130.8M BOE: the disclosed 1,433 Mboed of 2026 Q2 sales volume across an average 91.25-day quarter.
Price per unit
$53
drifting −7.5% per quarter
$52.63 per BOE derived from $6,882M of net sales over 130.8M BOE at a $92.79 WTI quarter.
Oil & Gas
Latest: $5.33B (2030Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $4.92B |
| 2024Q2 | $5.47B |
| 2024Q3 | $5.70B |
| 2024Q4 | $5.62B |
| 2025Q1 | $5.68B |
| 2025Q2 | $5.01B |
| 2025Q3 | $5.40B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.81B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.97B |
| 2026Q2 | $6.88B |
| 2026Q3E | $6.35B |
| 2026Q4E | $6.01B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.77B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.62B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.51B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.44B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.39B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.35B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.33B |
| 2028Q4E | $5.32B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.31B |
| 2029Q2E | $5.31B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.31B |
| 2029Q4E | $5.31B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.32B |
| 2030Q2E | $5.32B |
| 2030Q3E | $5.33B |
| 2030Q4E | $5.33B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Occidental discloses production and realised prices by region and by commodity every quarter but never discloses Oil & Gas net sales by region, so no Permian, Gulf of America or International revenue vertical is attempted. Segment income is split Domestic $2,255M and International $594M in the basis quarter; that is income, never revenue, and is not converted into one here.
- Units are a quarterly barrel count built from the disclosed daily rate at an average 91.25 days, so a 90-day or 92-day quarter carries about a 1% counting difference the model does not correct. At 1,433 Mboed that is 130.8 million BOE and a derived $52.63 per BOE against the brief's 91-day figure of $52.77.
- The price path is the single largest assumption in this model. The basis quarter realised $52.77 per BOE at $92.79 WTI, while every 2030 target management publishes is set at roughly $65 WTI. The driver glides realised price to $40.05 per BOE by 2030, which is the 2025 four-quarter mean of $40.03. Against a $65 marker that is 0.62 times WTI, slightly above the 0.538, 0.569 and 0.597 the three quarters with a disclosed marker actually printed; the difference is the domestic gas price normalising off negative $1.48 per Mcf, which is the one thing management said explicitly would revert.
- The domestic realised gas price of negative $1.48 per Mcf in the basis quarter is a Waha basis dislocation, not a durable price. The CFO said 'With the spread normalizing, we should see the domestic upstream realized gas price also to normalize', so the model does not carry it forward; a normalising gas price is part of what holds realised price per BOE above a pure WTI-ratio reading.
- Terminal EBITDA margin of 58% is a bottom-up figure, not a guess. Basis-quarter EBITDA of $34.46 per BOE against a $52.77 price implies $18.31 per BOE of cash cost; management's +$0.8B of oil and gas efficiencies by 2030 is about $1.50 per BOE on roughly 525 million BOE a year, and ($40.05 - $16.81) / $40.05 is 58.0%.