← Occidental Petroleum Corporation
OXY · Forward model
Revenue by vertical, 18 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Two verticals, because two segments are all Occidental reports since OxyChem closed to Berkshire Hathaway on 2026-01-02 and moved to discontinued operations. Every 2024 and 2025 quarter here is the restated continuing-operations presentation. Oil & Gas net sales plus Midstream & Marketing net sales plus eliminations equal the reported Net sales total, to the dollar, in all ten quarters from 2024 Q1 to 2026 Q2 - $8,065M at the basis quarter, from $6,882M, $1,326M and $(143)M. 2023 is excluded because the only quarterly segment figures available for it still consolidate the Chemical segment. Midstream points are marked estimated because the elimination subtraction is ours; both components are printed lines of Schedule 4. The model is built on Schedule 4 Net sales and will not agree with data/companies/oxy/series.json, which mixes ASC 606 revenue with total revenues and other income; that series needs a separate repair and does not affect this model. Disclosed and copied as reported: volumes, realised prices by commodity, per-BOE costs, the full 3Q26 and FY26 guidance table, the balance sheet and the 2030 bridge. Derived and marked as such: realised price per BOE, midstream net of eliminations, segment EBITDA margins and the LTM multiples. Assumed and labelled as such: the realised-price path, terminal margins, the 10% discount rate and the 5.0x exit multiple. Corporate overhead of 2.15% of revenue is not a guess either - it is the $173M gap between basis-quarter segment EBITDA of $5,568M and the $5,395M of consolidated adjusted EBITDA that the 4.93x LTM multiple is computed on, so the model's EBITDA definition and its exit multiple use the same denominator. Interest expense is deliberately not charged against free cash flow, because debt is carried in net cash instead. That net cash figure of negative $16.59B is cash of $4,150M less principal debt of $11,814M less preferred stock of $8,287M less noncontrolling interest of $635M; principal, not the $13,743M carrying value, which is inflated by an Anadarko-era purchase-accounting premium. Management expects to redeem the preferred in 2029 and the model carries it at par, not at any redemption premium. The base case does not credit the claim under test: it reaches about $6.15B of 2030 sustainable cash flow against the $8.2B management describes, and the Jackson case is what full delivery looks like.
Latest: $5.54B (2030Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $4.85B |
| 2024Q2 | $5.58B |
| 2024Q3 | $5.96B |
| 2024Q4 | $5.64B |
| 2025Q1 | $5.70B |
| 2025Q2 | $5.26B |
| 2025Q3 | $5.52B |
| 2025Q4 | $5.11B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.23B |
| 2026Q2 | $8.06B |
| 2026Q3E | $6.53B |
| 2026Q4E | $6.18B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.95B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.80B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.69B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.62B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.57B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.54B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.52B |
| 2028Q4E | $5.51B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.50B |
| 2029Q2E | $5.50B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.50B |
| 2029Q4E | $5.51B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.51B |
| 2030Q2E | $5.52B |
| 2030Q3E | $5.53B |
| 2030Q4E | $5.54B |
What drives each segment
Oil & Gas
Units × priceOccidental sells a disclosed number of barrels of oil equivalent at a disclosed realised price, so this line is literally volume times price. Volume is set by the development programme against a base decline management puts at roughly 25% today and 20% by 2030; price is the commodity market. Costs are quoted per BOE, so operating leverage on price is close to total: realised price per BOE rose 36% sequentially in 2026 Q2 and segment pre-tax income went from $1,017M to $2,849M on volume that moved 1,428 to 1,433 Mboed.
Latest: $5.33B (2030Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $4.92B |
| 2024Q2 | $5.47B |
| 2024Q3 | $5.70B |
| 2024Q4 | $5.62B |
| 2025Q1 | $5.68B |
| 2025Q2 | $5.01B |
| 2025Q3 | $5.40B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.81B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.97B |
| 2026Q2 | $6.88B |
| 2026Q3E | $6.35B |
| 2026Q4E | $6.01B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.77B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.62B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.51B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.44B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.39B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.35B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.33B |
| 2028Q4E | $5.32B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.31B |
| 2029Q2E | $5.31B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.31B |
| 2029Q4E | $5.31B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.32B |
| 2030Q2E | $5.32B |
| 2030Q3E | $5.33B |
| 2030Q4E | $5.33B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Occidental discloses production and realised prices by region and by commodity every quarter but never discloses Oil & Gas net sales by region, so no Permian, Gulf of America or International revenue vertical is attempted. Segment income is split Domestic $2,255M and International $594M in the basis quarter; that is income, never revenue, and is not converted into one here.
- Units are a quarterly barrel count built from the disclosed daily rate at an average 91.25 days, so a 90-day or 92-day quarter carries about a 1% counting difference the model does not correct. At 1,433 Mboed that is 130.8 million BOE and a derived $52.63 per BOE against the brief's 91-day figure of $52.77.
- The price path is the single largest assumption in this model. The basis quarter realised $52.77 per BOE at $92.79 WTI, while every 2030 target management publishes is set at roughly $65 WTI. The driver glides realised price to $40.05 per BOE by 2030, which is the 2025 four-quarter mean of $40.03. Against a $65 marker that is 0.62 times WTI, slightly above the 0.538, 0.569 and 0.597 the three quarters with a disclosed marker actually printed; the difference is the domestic gas price normalising off negative $1.48 per Mcf, which is the one thing management said explicitly would revert.
- The domestic realised gas price of negative $1.48 per Mcf in the basis quarter is a Waha basis dislocation, not a durable price. The CFO said 'With the spread normalizing, we should see the domestic upstream realized gas price also to normalize', so the model does not carry it forward; a normalising gas price is part of what holds realised price per BOE above a pure WTI-ratio reading.
- Terminal EBITDA margin of 58% is a bottom-up figure, not a guess. Basis-quarter EBITDA of $34.46 per BOE against a $52.77 price implies $18.31 per BOE of cash cost; management's +$0.8B of oil and gas efficiencies by 2030 is about $1.50 per BOE on roughly 525 million BOE a year, and ($40.05 - $16.81) / $40.05 is 58.0%.
Midstream & Marketing
Growth pathA spread and optionality business bolted onto the upstream: Permian-to-Gulf-Coast pipeline capacity, crude export terminals, the Dolphin Pipeline, Al Hosn, Permian EOR gas processing and a 39.0% combined share of net income from Western Midstream. Reported net sales are small and volatile and the economics live in pre-tax income, which is the only thing management guides. The basis quarter produced $961M of adjusted pre-tax income, beating the 2018 record, on the same Waha dislocation that made the upstream's realised gas price negative - and management guided the very next quarter to between negative $100M and positive $100M.
Latest: $203M (2030Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | -$68M |
| 2024Q2 | $111M |
| 2024Q3 | $258M |
| 2024Q4 | $13M |
| 2025Q1 | $21M |
| 2025Q2 | $249M |
| 2025Q3 | $115M |
| 2025Q4 | $306M |
| 2026Q1 | $255M |
| 2026Q2 | $1.18B |
| 2026Q3E | $175M |
| 2026Q4E | $177M |
| 2027Q1E | $179M |
| 2027Q2E | $180M |
| 2027Q3E | $182M |
| 2027Q4E | $184M |
| 2028Q1E | $185M |
| 2028Q2E | $187M |
| 2028Q3E | $188M |
| 2028Q4E | $190M |
| 2029Q1E | $191M |
| 2029Q2E | $193M |
| 2029Q3E | $195M |
| 2029Q4E | $196M |
| 2030Q1E | $198M |
| 2030Q2E | $199M |
| 2030Q3E | $201M |
| 2030Q4E | $203M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Every quarter is shown net of intersegment eliminations, because eliminations are intersegment midstream services sold to Oil & Gas. Both components are printed lines of Schedule 4 and the two verticals sum to the reported Net sales total to the dollar in all ten quarters, so these points are marked estimated only because the subtraction is ours, not because any figure is apportioned.
- The basis quarter is a windfall, not a run rate, so the model steps the level down rather than decaying it: a one-off -85.4% step lands the projection at $173M a quarter, which is the 2025 four-quarter mean of $172.75M. A compounding decline would have taken the line below its own history and then kept going.
- The calibration target is guided pre-tax income, not revenue. Modelled 3Q26 EBITDA of $158M less the guided midstream and corporate DD&A of about $115M is roughly $43M of pre-tax income, inside the guided negative $100M to positive $100M. Adding the disclosed $961M of 2026 Q2 adjusted pre-tax income and a derived $322M for 2026 Q1 - the reported negative $87M plus the disclosed $409M of before-tax mark-to-market derivative loss - puts FY26 near $1.37B, inside the guided $1,300-1,500M.
- The 90.7% basis margin is derived, not assumed: $961M of disclosed adjusted pre-tax income plus about $113M of segment DD&A over $1,183M of net sales. It is above 90% because most of what this segment earns is trading margin, cargo timing and equity income from Western Midstream, none of which passes through its own revenue line.
- Western Midstream is diluting: Occidental transferred 15.3 million WES units in February 2026 and recognised a $220M gain in June 2026 from a pro-rata ownership reduction, which is why the terminal margin glides down to 88% rather than holding at the basis level.
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Jackson case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Jackson column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The 2030 sustainable cash flow bridge
- Aug 5, 2026 +$4.0 B in annual sustainable cash flow expected by 2030; Decline rate improvement from ~25% to 20%; Reduction to $10 B in principal debt, with $740 MM interest savings
- Aug 12, 2026 Lower sustaining capital by $900 million through continued improvements in capital efficiency and from a lower total Oxy base decline.
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 18 quarters | $23.00B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $22.10B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $12.70B |
| Exit multiple, on ebitda | 5.0x |
| Terminal value | $63.49B |
| Discounted at 10.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $41.35B |
| Enterprise value | $64.35B |
| Net cash | -$16.59B |
| Equity value | $47.76B |
| Shares | 1.00B |
| Fair value per share | $47.78 |
| Against the current price of $59.17 | -19% |
10% is a mid-cycle cost of equity for a large-cap US E&P with investment-grade leverage, and both figures are assumed rather than sourced. The 5.0x exit is anchored on Occidental's own derived LTM multiple of 4.93x - $75.19B of enterprise value over $15,243M of LTM adjusted EBITDA - because no peer multiple was independently verified in this pass. The same enterprise value is 5.63x LTM operating cash flow before working capital of $13,355M and 5.92x the deck's own $12.7B of year-end-2029 annualised cash flow, so on management's number the market is already paying a higher multiple than on the trailing one.
Read the other way round: at $59.17 the market is paying 6.4x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
Capex outside the verticals
Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.
Low-carbon ventures capital, including 1PointFive Stratos
2026 Q3 → 2029 Q4Stratos direct air capture has trains 1-4 constructed, Class VI sequestration permits received and full plant commissioning expected to begin around year-end 2026. It generates no disclosed revenue line, so it is not a vertical. It enters the model only as the capital management expects to remove: the 2030 bridge carries '+$0.5 B LCV Capital Reduction' against 2025, so $500M a year is carried as a programme through 2029 Q4 and is absent from 2030 onward.
The projected path
| Quarter | Oil & Gas | Midstream & Marketing | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $6.35B | $175M | $6.53B | +18% | $4.10B | $1.44B | $1.99B | +49 | $1.95B |
| 2026 Q4E | $6.01B | $177M | $6.18B | +21% | $3.83B | $1.37B | $1.84B | +51 | $1.76B |
| 2027 Q1E | $5.77B | $179M | $5.95B | +14% | $3.64B | $1.33B | $1.74B | +43 | $1.62B |
| 2027 Q2E | $5.62B | $180M | $5.80B | -28% | $3.51B | $1.30B | $1.66B | +1 | $1.51B |
| 2027 Q3E | $5.51B | $182M | $5.69B | -13% | $3.42B | $1.28B | $1.60B | +15 | $1.42B |
| 2027 Q4E | $5.44B | $184M | $5.62B | -9% | $3.35B | $1.26B | $1.56B | +19 | $1.36B |
| 2028 Q1E | $5.39B | $185M | $5.57B | -6% | $3.30B | $1.25B | $1.53B | +21 | $1.30B |
| 2028 Q2E | $5.35B | $187M | $5.54B | -4% | $3.26B | $1.25B | $1.51B | +23 | $1.25B |
| 2028 Q3E | $5.33B | $188M | $5.52B | -3% | $3.23B | $1.25B | $1.49B | +24 | $1.20B |
| 2028 Q4E | $5.32B | $190M | $5.51B | -2% | $3.21B | $1.24B | $1.48B | +25 | $1.16B |
| 2029 Q1E | $5.31B | $191M | $5.50B | -1% | $3.20B | $1.24B | $1.47B | +25 | $1.13B |
| 2029 Q2E | $5.31B | $193M | $5.50B | -1% | $3.19B | $1.24B | $1.46B | +26 | $1.10B |
| 2029 Q3E | $5.31B | $195M | $5.50B | +0% | $3.18B | $1.25B | $1.45B | +26 | $1.07B |
| 2029 Q4E | $5.31B | $196M | $5.51B | +0% | $3.18B | $1.25B | $1.45B | +26 | $1.04B |
| 2030 Q1E | $5.32B | $198M | $5.51B | +0% | $3.17B | $1.12B | $1.54B | +28 | $1.08B |
| 2030 Q2E | $5.32B | $199M | $5.52B | +0% | $3.17B | $1.12B | $1.54B | +28 | $1.05B |
| 2030 Q3E | $5.33B | $201M | $5.53B | +0% | $3.17B | $1.13B | $1.54B | +28 | $1.02B |
| 2030 Q4E | $5.33B | $203M | $5.54B | +1% | $3.18B | $1.13B | $1.54B | +28 | $1000M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | verticals, corporate, valuation, scenarios | $47.78 | First published model, built from the verified 2026 Q2 research brief. Two verticals, which is every segment Occidental reports after the OxyChem divestiture; a unit driver on Oil & Gas because the line is disclosed volume times disclosed price; and an explicit realised-price reversion out of a $92.79 WTI basis quarter toward the ~$65 WTI on which management's own 2030 targets are set. |