ORCL · Forward model · Cloud infrastructure (OCI) · Bear case
What has to happen in Cloud infrastructure (OCI)
Model as of
This page changes Cloud infrastructure (OCI) inside the complete ORCL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Cloud infrastructure (OCI)
The whole model. OCI is 30% of FY2026 revenue and effectively all of the growth: $18.1B, up 77%, with the June quarter alone up 93%. It carries GPU training and inference capacity, Oracle Database in OCI, the multicloud database running inside AWS, Azure and Google, and ordinary compute and storage. Revenue is gated by delivered datacenter capacity, not demand — Oracle reports 97.5% global GPU utilisation and says recognition follows site delivery, so the projection is a build schedule in megawatts, a utilisation rate and a price per megawatt-quarter.
Latest: $31.75B (2032Q1E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $2.15B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.43B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.65B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.00B |
| 2026Q1 | $3.35B |
| 2026Q2 | $4.08B |
| 2026Q3 | $4.89B |
| 2026Q4 | $5.79B |
| 2027Q1 | $7.39B |
| 2027Q2E | $8.51B |
| 2027Q3E | $9.64B |
| 2027Q4E | $10.79B |
| 2028Q1E | $11.94B |
| 2028Q2E | $13.10B |
| 2028Q3E | $14.27B |
| 2028Q4E | $15.45B |
| 2029Q1E | $16.63B |
| 2029Q2E | $17.83B |
| 2029Q3E | $19.04B |
| 2029Q4E | $20.25B |
| 2030Q1E | $21.48B |
| 2030Q2E | $22.72B |
| 2030Q3E | $23.97B |
| 2030Q4E | $25.23B |
| 2031Q1E | $26.51B |
| 2031Q2E | $27.80B |
| 2031Q3E | $29.10B |
| 2031Q4E | $30.42B |
| 2032Q1E | $31.75B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Live megawatts are the weakest input here. Oracle discloses capacity DELIVERED (more than 1.2 GW in FY26, 850 MW in Q1 FY27) but never the live earning base, so the 2,850 MW at the basis quarter is inferred and the price per megawatt falls out of it rather than being observed.
- Delivered is not earning. Capacity handed over inside a quarter earns for only part of it, so the megawatts added in this driver run below Oracle's headline delivery figures on purpose — the engine gives a full quarter of revenue to everything it adds.
- The implied $2.66M per megawatt-quarter is roughly 1.5x what CoreWeave's disclosure implies for a pure GPU cloud, which is the right direction: OCI also carries database, multicloud and ordinary IaaS revenue that consumes little power.
- Capex intensity here is set on Oracle's NET cash outlay basis ($47.7B in FY26 and $18.0B in Q1 FY27 against $28.5B reported), not reported capex. Oracle itself presents the net figure as the real funding requirement, and the difference is customer prepayments and third-party manufacturer timing — the same prepayments that make the RPO convertible.
- The $90B-or-more FY2027 guide implies OCI revenue of roughly $39B once the five other lines are grown at their observed rates — about 22% above the $32B in the September 2025 five-year schedule. Either the schedule has been quietly raised or the non-infrastructure lines must accelerate; nothing Oracle published through the Q1 FY27 release resolves which.