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What has to happen in Data and Listing Services

Model as of

This page changes Data and Listing Services inside the complete NDAQ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

NDAQ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $96.09 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $309M 14% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $2.70B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The single most testable claim in the quarter, isolated. Nasdaq disclosed that $260 billion of the last twelve months' AUM growth was market appreciation against $109 billion of net inflows: 70% of it was the market, not new money. This case takes that appreciation back out - a 20% drawdown in average ETP AUM two quarters from the basis, after which the base grows on inflows alone - and touches nothing else. Every other line is the base case. What this case does NOT reach is a bear case: fair value lands close to the tape, and that is the finding.

Data and Listing Services

Basis quarter$217M
Final quarter$309M
Implied CAGR+7%
Final revenue mix14%

Annual listing fees from every company on The Nasdaq Stock Market and on Nasdaq Nordic and Baltic, plus the proprietary and tape market data sold on top of them. Both legs of the driver are printed every quarter: 5,768 listed companies at 30 June 2026 against $217M of revenue, which is $37,621 per listing per quarter. The listing count is the earning base and it has risen in nine of the last ten quarters, from 5,223 at the start of 2024. That is why this is a capacity line and not a growth rate.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $204M Reported
2025 Q4 $211M Reported
2026 Q1 $214M Reported
2026 Q2 $217M Reported
Annual listing feesInitial listing feesNasdaq proprietary market dataU.S. tape revenue shareNordic and Baltic listing and data fees
Listed companies 5768 listed companies at the basis quarter 5,768 listings at 30 June 2026: 4,659 on The Nasdaq Stock Market plus 1,109 Nordic and Baltic, both printed.
Net new listings 95 listed companies/qtr changing 0.0% per quarter The mean of the last four net changes in the listing count: +106, +107, +78, +91.
Utilisation 100% gliding toward 100% 100%: every listed company pays an annual fee. There is no idle capacity on a listings register.
Revenue per listing $37621/qtr drifting +0.4% per quarter $217M over 5,768 listings. It was $35,614 in 2024 Q1 and has never moved more than 1.5% in a quarter.
Data and Listing Services

Latest: $309M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $186M
2024Q2 $187M
2024Q3 $190M
2024Q4 $192M
2025Q1 $192M
2025Q2 $198M
2025Q3 $204M
2025Q4 $211M
2026Q1 $214M
2026Q2 $217M
2026Q3E $221M
2026Q4E $226M
2027Q1E $230M
2027Q2E $235M
2027Q3E $239M
2027Q4E $244M
2028Q1E $248M
2028Q2E $253M
2028Q3E $258M
2028Q4E $262M
2029Q1E $267M
2029Q2E $271M
2029Q3E $276M
2029Q4E $281M
2030Q1E $285M
2030Q2E $290M
2030Q3E $295M
2030Q4E $299M
2031Q1E $304M
2031Q2E $309M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Revenue per listing is the monetisation metric and it is remarkably steady: $35,614 in 2024 Q1, $37,621 in the basis quarter, never moving more than 1.5% in any single quarter of the ten.
  • The listing count includes exchange-traded products. ETPs on The Nasdaq Stock Market went from 914 to 1,243 in a year, so part of the base's growth is the same ETF boom that drives the Index line.
  • Capital Access Platforms ARR is disclosed only in total, $1,388M, so the recurring share of this line cannot be measured against Workflow and Insights. The listing count is used precisely because it is published per quarter.
  • The margin is the Capital Access Platforms divisional margin, 65.4%, applied uniformly to all three of its lines. Nasdaq publishes operating income by division only; a split between listings, index and workflow is not disclosed and is not invented here.
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