NBIS · Forward model · Avride, TripleTen and eliminations · Bull case
What has to happen in Avride, TripleTen and eliminations
Model as of
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Avride, TripleTen and eliminations
Group revenue less the Nebius AI cloud segment: Avride's autonomous driving business, TripleTen's reskilling bootcamps, and the elimination of the other segments' own use of the cloud platform. Together they are 1.3% of group revenue and cost about $49.5M of adjusted EBITDA a quarter, which is the entire gap between the $285.7M the cloud segment earned and the $236.2M the group reported. They are carried here so the two verticals sum exactly to reported consolidated revenue.
Latest: $14M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $5M |
| 2024Q4 | $11M |
| 2025Q1 | $10M |
| 2025Q2 | $11M |
| 2025Q3 | $15M |
| 2025Q4 | $14M |
| 2026Q1 | $9M |
| 2026Q2 | $7M |
| 2026Q3E | $7M |
| 2026Q4E | $7M |
| 2027Q1E | $7M |
| 2027Q2E | $8M |
| 2027Q3E | $8M |
| 2027Q4E | $8M |
| 2028Q1E | $8M |
| 2028Q2E | $9M |
| 2028Q3E | $9M |
| 2028Q4E | $9M |
| 2029Q1E | $10M |
| 2029Q2E | $10M |
| 2029Q3E | $10M |
| 2029Q4E | $11M |
| 2030Q1E | $11M |
| 2030Q2E | $12M |
| 2030Q3E | $12M |
| 2030Q4E | $13M |
| 2031Q1E | $13M |
| 2031Q2E | $14M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Every quarter here is derived - reported group revenue less the reported Nebius AI cloud segment - so all eight points are marked estimated even though both inputs are printed figures. The subtraction is exact; it is the split that is not separately disclosed.
- Avride volumes are published - more than 200 AV-capable vehicles and over one million autonomous miles in 2026 to date - but there is no revenue per mile, ride or vehicle, so nothing here can be driven by units.
- TripleTen's real driver is student enrolment times average check, and neither series is published quarterly; the disclosed fact is that U.S. student volumes are falling as it moves off legacy offerings.
- The -668.9% margin is the combined Avride and TripleTen adjusted EBITDA of -$49.5M over $7.4M of residual revenue. It glides toward -200% on an assumption that Avride's losses narrow, which no published unit economics support.
- This line can fall while Avride and TripleTen both grow, because eliminations scale with how much cloud the other segments consume.