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NBIS · Forward model · Avride, TripleTen and eliminations · Volozh case

What has to happen in Avride, TripleTen and eliminations

Model as of

This page changes Avride, TripleTen and eliminations inside the complete NBIS model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

NBIS forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $288.36 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $11M 0% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$477M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The founder's case, which is not a growth rate but an inventory decision. Nebius says it could sell its entire 2027 capacity today at current terms and is deliberately not doing so, holding premium capacity back for shorter, higher-priced contracts, with deal terms prioritised as price, then upfront prepayment, then duration. A seller withholding inventory in a shortage is the strongest available statement about where it thinks price goes, so the model version is revenue per megawatt in 2027-2028 above the Q2 signed level rather than below it. What this case does not achieve is a self-funding business: capex still exceeds EBITDA in every quarter of the horizon, and it says nothing about whether the power arrives on time.

Avride, TripleTen and eliminations

Basis quarter$7M
Final quarter$11M
Implied CAGR+8%
Final revenue mix0%

Group revenue less the Nebius AI cloud segment: Avride's autonomous driving business, TripleTen's reskilling bootcamps, and the elimination of the other segments' own use of the cloud platform. Together they are 1.3% of group revenue and cost about $49.5M of adjusted EBITDA a quarter, which is the entire gap between the $285.7M the cloud segment earned and the $236.2M the group reported. They are carried here so the two verticals sum exactly to reported consolidated revenue.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $15M Estimated
2025 Q4 $14M Estimated
2026 Q1 $9M Estimated
2026 Q2 $7M Estimated
Avride autonomous driving and delivery roboticsTripleTen online reskilling bootcampsIntersegment eliminations for the other segments' use of the Nebius cloud
Sequential growth −3.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% -3% a quarter: TripleTen shrank 19% year over year and eliminations grow with cloud usage, so the residual keeps falling.
Avride, TripleTen and eliminations

Latest: $11M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $5M
2024Q4 $11M
2025Q1 $10M
2025Q2 $11M
2025Q3 $15M
2025Q4 $14M
2026Q1 $9M
2026Q2 $7M
2026Q3E $7M
2026Q4E $7M
2027Q1E $7M
2027Q2E $7M
2027Q3E $7M
2027Q4E $7M
2028Q1E $8M
2028Q2E $8M
2028Q3E $8M
2028Q4E $8M
2029Q1E $8M
2029Q2E $9M
2029Q3E $9M
2029Q4E $9M
2030Q1E $9M
2030Q2E $10M
2030Q3E $10M
2030Q4E $10M
2031Q1E $10M
2031Q2E $11M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Every quarter here is derived - reported group revenue less the reported Nebius AI cloud segment - so all eight points are marked estimated even though both inputs are printed figures. The subtraction is exact; it is the split that is not separately disclosed.
  • Avride volumes are published - more than 200 AV-capable vehicles and over one million autonomous miles in 2026 to date - but there is no revenue per mile, ride or vehicle, so nothing here can be driven by units.
  • TripleTen's real driver is student enrolment times average check, and neither series is published quarterly; the disclosed fact is that U.S. student volumes are falling as it moves off legacy offerings.
  • The -668.9% margin is the combined Avride and TripleTen adjusted EBITDA of -$49.5M over $7.4M of residual revenue. It glides toward -200% on an assumption that Avride's losses narrow, which no published unit economics support.
  • This line can fall while Avride and TripleTen both grow, because eliminations scale with how much cloud the other segments consume.
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