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NBIS · Forward model · Nebius AI cloud · Bear case

What has to happen in Nebius AI cloud

Model as of

This page changes Nebius AI cloud inside the complete NBIS model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

NBIS forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value −$40.06 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $7.89B 100% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$50.36B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Capacity lands at the bottom of the guided range and the pricing step does not hold on renewal - $12M per megawatt rather than the $20-25M signed in Q2. The company's own disclosure is what makes this live: the majority of Q2 deals were signed against capacity arriving in late 2026 and contribute primarily to 2027 revenue, so a slip in connection dates moves revenue out of the window with no change in demand at all. The fixed costs do not wait. Interest expense went from $4.8M to $119.1M year over year and D&A to $259.7M against a $175.9M operating loss. Fair value goes below zero here, and that is the case rather than a rounding error: enterprise value falls under the debt, so the equity is the residual behind the lenders.

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Nebius AI cloud

Basis quarter$575M
Final quarter$7.89B
Implied CAGR+69%
Final revenue mix100%

A GPU cloud whose revenue is the delivery of connected, GPU-equipped power under increasingly prepaid multi-year contracts. Every quarter of growth so far has come from capacity coming online at rising prices, and the forward book is disclosed: $37.5B of remaining performance obligations with a published runoff, $3.0B of ARR at the end of June, and guidance to exit 2026 between $7B and $9B of ARR. Capacity is the stated constraint - the company says it could sell its whole 2027 book today and is choosing not to - but no quarterly megawatt or utilisation series exists, so this line is a growth path anchored on the ARR ladder and the RPO schedule rather than a capacity build.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $131M Reported
2025 Q4 $214M Reported
2026 Q1 $390M Reported
2026 Q2 $575M Reported
Reserved GPU capacity contracts, multi-year and increasingly prepaidPay-as-you-go computeToken Factory managed inferenceStorage, networking and platform software (Aether)Asset-light partnership capacity introduced in Q2 2026
Sequential growth +57.5%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% ARR itself rose 56% last quarter. 57.5% lands FY2026 at $3.25B, inside the guided $3.0-3.4B, with exit ARR just inside $7-9B.
Nebius AI cloud

Latest: $7.89B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $27M
2024Q4 $24M
2025Q1 $41M
2025Q2 $94M
2025Q3 $131M
2025Q4 $214M
2026Q1 $390M
2026Q2 $575M
2026Q3E $878M
2026Q4E $1.27B
2027Q1E $1.73B
2027Q2E $2.26B
2027Q3E $2.84B
2027Q4E $3.44B
2028Q1E $4.04B
2028Q2E $4.63B
2028Q3E $5.18B
2028Q4E $5.69B
2029Q1E $6.14B
2029Q2E $6.53B
2029Q3E $6.87B
2029Q4E $7.15B
2030Q1E $7.38B
2030Q2E $7.56B
2030Q3E $7.69B
2030Q4E $7.79B
2031Q1E $7.85B
2031Q2E $7.89B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Segment revenue includes intersegment transactions; the company states it is impracticable to separate external from intersegment revenue for any segment, so this line is the segment as filed, not an external-customer line.
  • From Q2 2026 corporate-function expense is no longer shown separately and is folded into this segment's other costs, so the 49.7% adjusted EBITDA margin is not a clean facility-level contribution margin and corporate overhead is deliberately set to zero above it.
  • Segment assets are not reviewed by the chief operating decision maker, so no segment capex exists. The 900% opening capex intensity is group capex applied to this line, which is defensible only because Avride and TripleTen are immaterial to the $5.66B spent in the quarter.
  • Adjusted EBITDA adds back the depreciation created by the guided $20-25B of capex, and the server life was raised from four years to five from 2026, which lowers D&A as a share of revenue independently of anything operational. This margin is a pre-depreciation margin.
  • The $12M, $20-25M and $40-50M per-megawatt figures management quotes are new-deal prices, not a fleet average, and no megawatt count was disclosed for 2026 Q1 or Q2. That is why this vertical is a growth driver and not a capacity driver.
  • The 2024 Q4 figure is FY2024 segment revenue of $68.3M less the nine months to 2024-09-30 of $44.5M, so it is marked estimated; the other seven quarters are printed segment figures.
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