NBIS · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-27

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Nebius reports three operating segments plus eliminations, and quarterly segment revenue is disclosed or cleanly derivable back to 2024 Q3, so the split here is reported rather than invented. The two verticals sum to filed consolidated revenue in all eight historical quarters: $32.1M, $35.2M, $50.9M, $105.1M, $146.1M, $227.7M, $399.0M and $582.3M. Toloka was deconsolidated in Q2 2025 and every prior period was restated to continuing operations, so these figures are on the restated base and no growth rate quoted before that reclassification is comparable. What is NOT disclosed is any quarterly capacity series: connected and active megawatts exist only as year-end actuals - 25 MW connected at the end of 2024, about 170 MW active at the end of 2025 - and as guidance of 800 MW to 1 GW connected at the end of 2026. There is no megawatt figure at all for 2026 Q1 or Q2 and no utilisation figure anywhere, so a capacity driver would have had to invent its own installed base; the megawatt ladder is used as scenario evidence only. What is ours: the growth path and its decay, the margin and capex glides, the tax rate, the discount rate and the exit multiple. Corporate overhead is set to zero deliberately, because from Q2 2026 corporate-function expense is already inside the cloud segment's costs and charging it again would double count. Share count is the economic-basic 308.7M - 271.9M outstanding at 2026-06-30 plus the 21.1M NVIDIA pre-funded warrants the company itself counts as outstanding plus the ~15.8M Class A issued in the August 24 note exchange - and is then held flat, so further dilution from the 65.4M anti-dilutive convertible shares, the new 2030 and 2034 notes and the remaining ATM capacity is charged nowhere. Net debt is the basis-date $503.6M; the July secured facility and the August $5.75B of convertibles are not rolled in, because the July and August capex and interest that would offset them are undisclosed. FY2026 revenue guidance, the ~40% adjusted EBITDA margin and the $20-25B capex range exist only in the earnings call - no SEC filing contains them - and adjusted EBITDA adds back the depreciation that all that capex creates, which is why this model charges capex in cash rather than valuing a multiple of EBITDA.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.