NBIS · Forward model · Nebius AI cloud
What has to happen in Nebius AI cloud
Model as of
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Nebius AI cloud
A GPU cloud whose revenue is the delivery of connected, GPU-equipped power under increasingly prepaid multi-year contracts. Every quarter of growth so far has come from capacity coming online at rising prices, and the forward book is disclosed: $37.5B of remaining performance obligations with a published runoff, $3.0B of ARR at the end of June, and guidance to exit 2026 between $7B and $9B of ARR. Capacity is the stated constraint - the company says it could sell its whole 2027 book today and is choosing not to - but no quarterly megawatt or utilisation series exists, so this line is a growth path anchored on the ARR ladder and the RPO schedule rather than a capacity build.
Latest: $15.44B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $27M |
| 2024Q4 | $24M |
| 2025Q1 | $41M |
| 2025Q2 | $94M |
| 2025Q3 | $131M |
| 2025Q4 | $214M |
| 2026Q1 | $390M |
| 2026Q2 | $575M |
| 2026Q3E | $905M |
| 2026Q4E | $1.35B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.90B |
| 2027Q2E | $2.56B |
| 2027Q3E | $3.32B |
| 2027Q4E | $4.16B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.05B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.98B |
| 2028Q3E | $6.92B |
| 2028Q4E | $7.86B |
| 2029Q1E | $8.78B |
| 2029Q2E | $9.68B |
| 2029Q3E | $10.53B |
| 2029Q4E | $11.35B |
| 2030Q1E | $12.12B |
| 2030Q2E | $12.86B |
| 2030Q3E | $13.55B |
| 2030Q4E | $14.21B |
| 2031Q1E | $14.84B |
| 2031Q2E | $15.44B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Segment revenue includes intersegment transactions; the company states it is impracticable to separate external from intersegment revenue for any segment, so this line is the segment as filed, not an external-customer line.
- From Q2 2026 corporate-function expense is no longer shown separately and is folded into this segment's other costs, so the 49.7% adjusted EBITDA margin is not a clean facility-level contribution margin and corporate overhead is deliberately set to zero above it.
- Segment assets are not reviewed by the chief operating decision maker, so no segment capex exists. The 900% opening capex intensity is group capex applied to this line, which is defensible only because Avride and TripleTen are immaterial to the $5.66B spent in the quarter.
- Adjusted EBITDA adds back the depreciation created by the guided $20-25B of capex, and the server life was raised from four years to five from 2026, which lowers D&A as a share of revenue independently of anything operational. This margin is a pre-depreciation margin.
- The $12M, $20-25M and $40-50M per-megawatt figures management quotes are new-deal prices, not a fleet average, and no megawatt count was disclosed for 2026 Q1 or Q2. That is why this vertical is a growth driver and not a capacity driver.
- The 2024 Q4 figure is FY2024 segment revenue of $68.3M less the nine months to 2024-09-30 of $44.5M, so it is marked estimated; the other seven quarters are printed segment figures.