MU · Forward model · Contracted case

The Contracted case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-18

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Quarters are fiscal, the way Micron labels them: 2026 Q3 is the quarter ended 28 May 2026. Micron reports four business units and this model carries exactly those four — Cloud Memory, Core Data Center, Mobile and Client, Automotive and Embedded — with no sub-splits invented underneath them. Every revenue point is reported, so nothing is marked estimated. They do not quite add up, and that is Micron's arithmetic rather than this model's: the four units sum to $41,448M against a reported $41,456M in the basis quarter, an $8M residual Micron does not assign to any unit, and the same $1M-$8M gap appears in each earlier quarter. What IS assumed, and heavily, is the split of each unit's revenue into bits and price. Micron publishes no bit volumes, so the petabyte figures are revenue divided by an assumed price per gigabyte: the LEVEL is calibrated and the claim is the SHAPE. That shape changed on 18 August 2026. The model used to revert prices from the first projected quarter, which put it ~30% below the street for fiscal 2027 and below Micron's own next-quarter guide. Two disclosures in the 2026 Q3 10-Q say that is wrong. First, the strategic customer agreements are TAKE-OR-PAY with price bands: 'The largest agreements generally have a ceiling price for existing products that approximates the market price in the second calendar quarter of 2026, and a floor price through the term of the agreement,' and Micron expects gross margins at those FLOOR prices to be 'well above our peak quarterly margins in any past cycle.' That is a floor under the downside AND a ceiling on the upside, and the model now carries both. Second, customers are prepaying to secure supply: $22B of cash deposits and related financial commitments on agreements concluded to date, about $18B of it cash. Price now starts strongly positive and glides negative rather than falling from day one, so revenue peaks in fiscal 2028 and declines after, as the fabs being built now land. Fiscal 2027 lands at about $233B against a street range of roughly $225-240B.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.