MU · Forward model · Mobile and Client · Bear case
What has to happen in Mobile and Client
Model as of
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Mobile and Client
Basis quarter$11.52B
Final quarter$3.06B
Implied CAGR−23%
Final revenue mix10%
LPDDR for phones and DRAM and NAND for PCs. Structurally the weakest position Micron holds — the customers are price-sensitive, the volumes are set by handset and PC cycles that are not growing, and the current margin is entirely borrowed from the shortage.
Last four quarters
2025 Q4
$3.76B
Reported
2026 Q1
$4.25B
Reported
2026 Q2
$7.71B
Reported
2026 Q3
$11.52B
Reported
LPDDR5X for smartphonesClient DRAM for PCs and AI PCsClient SSDs (Gen5 QLC, G9 NAND)Consumer and channel
Units
4200/qtr
growing +5.5% per quarter
4,200 PB in the basis quarter, backed out of $11.5B at an assumed $2.74/GB. Not disclosed by Micron.
Price per unit
$3M
drifting +9.5% per quarter
$2.74M per PB, roughly $2.74/GB — high-cycle pricing for LPDDR and client DRAM.
Mobile and Client
Latest: $3.06B (2031Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q3 | $3.25B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.76B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.25B |
| 2026Q2 | $7.71B |
| 2026Q3 | $11.52B |
| 2026Q4E | $12.78B |
| 2027Q1E | $13.47B |
| 2027Q2E | $13.70B |
| 2027Q3E | $13.61B |
| 2027Q4E | $13.31B |
| 2028Q1E | $12.87B |
| 2028Q2E | $12.14B |
| 2028Q3E | $11.00B |
| 2028Q4E | $9.93B |
| 2029Q1E | $8.95B |
| 2029Q2E | $8.06B |
| 2029Q3E | $7.25B |
| 2029Q4E | $6.51B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.85B |
| 2030Q2E | $5.25B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.72B |
| 2030Q4E | $4.23B |
| 2031Q1E | $3.80B |
| 2031Q2E | $3.41B |
| 2031Q3E | $3.06B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Gross margin here was 24% a year ago and 87% in the basis quarter, on a product line whose end markets — phones and PCs — grew by neither 24% nor 87%. Every point of that came from price, and this model gives most of it back: revenue ends the horizon about 40% below its 2027 peak.
- Volume grows 5.5% a quarter until it hits the 6,000 PB ceiling around the middle of the horizon, then stops. Handset and PC unit volumes are flat, so all the growth is gigabytes per device, and this line gets what is left of the fab after the data centre is served.
- This is where the China risk lands. CXMT now holds roughly 7% of global DRAM revenue and is expanding into exactly the mainstream DRAM the incumbents vacated to chase HBM; Apple has been testing its parts for devices sold in China. Mainstream mobile and client DRAM is the most substitutable thing Micron sells, which is why this line carries the fastest price decline and the lowest terminal margin of the four.
- There is a feedback loop worth naming: NVIDIA's own commentary blames slower consumer PC demand on elevated memory prices. Micron's peak price is suppressing the volume of the very market this line serves, which is the mechanism by which memory cycles turn.