MU · Forward model · Automotive and Embedded · Bear case
What has to happen in Automotive and Embedded
Model as of
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Automotive and Embedded
Basis quarter$4.63B
Final quarter$4.29B
Implied CAGR−2%
Final revenue mix14%
Memory designed into cars, industrial equipment and robots. Small, slow and by far the most stable line Micron has — design wins last for years and prices move on contracts rather than on spot.
Last four quarters
2025 Q4
$1.43B
Reported
2026 Q1
$1.72B
Reported
2026 Q2
$2.71B
Reported
2026 Q3
$4.63B
Reported
Automotive DRAM and UFS NANDIndustrial and embedded memoryRobotaxi and ADAS platformsLong-lifecycle industrial supply
Sequential growth
+8.0%/qtr
decaying toward +1.5%
8% a quarter to start, carrying the same contract resets the other lines get, from a much smaller base.
Automotive and Embedded
Latest: $4.29B (2031Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q3 | $1.13B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.43B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.72B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.71B |
| 2026Q3 | $4.63B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.88B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.06B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.18B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.26B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.30B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.30B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.28B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.24B |
| 2028Q4E | $5.19B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.13B |
| 2029Q2E | $5.05B |
| 2029Q3E | $4.98B |
| 2029Q4E | $4.89B |
| 2030Q1E | $4.81B |
| 2030Q2E | $4.72B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.64B |
| 2030Q4E | $4.55B |
| 2031Q1E | $4.46B |
| 2031Q2E | $4.38B |
| 2031Q3E | $4.29B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The one line carried on a plain growth rate, and the only one where that is the honest choice: automotive memory is sold on multi-year design wins at contracted prices, so there is no meaningful bit-versus-price tension to model.
- It has still quadrupled in four quarters, which means it is not as insulated from the spot market as the design-win story suggests. Terminal growth of 1% a quarter says the model does not believe that rate survives.
- At 11% of revenue this line cannot decide the valuation. It is carried in full because it is a disclosed business unit, and because it is the only part of Micron that would still be growing in a downcycle.
- Margins here glide down least — 79% to 45% — because contract pricing falls slower than spot in both directions. That is also why this unit's margin was the lowest of the four on the way up.