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MU · Forward model · Mobile and Client · Bull case

What has to happen in Mobile and Client

Model as of

This page changes Mobile and Client inside the complete MU model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

MU forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $1,617.54 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $10.30B 10% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $110.49B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

AI memory demand grows faster than anyone can add wafers, so the shortage runs into 2029 rather than ending in 2028, and HBM4E extends the premium. This is a claim about the industry's capacity discipline, and the last four cycles all ended when that discipline broke. Note it is also partly capped: the largest agreements have a ceiling price near the calendar Q2 2026 market price, so a further spike accrues only to the uncontracted book.

Mobile and Client

Basis quarter$11.52B
Final quarter$10.30B
Implied CAGR−2%
Final revenue mix10%

LPDDR for phones and DRAM and NAND for PCs. Structurally the weakest position Micron holds — the customers are price-sensitive, the volumes are set by handset and PC cycles that are not growing, and the current margin is entirely borrowed from the shortage.

Last four quarters
2025 Q4 $3.76B Reported
2026 Q1 $4.25B Reported
2026 Q2 $7.71B Reported
2026 Q3 $11.52B Reported
LPDDR5X for smartphonesClient DRAM for PCs and AI PCsClient SSDs (Gen5 QLC, G9 NAND)Consumer and channel
Units 4200/qtr growing +5.5% per quarter 4,200 PB in the basis quarter, backed out of $11.5B at an assumed $2.74/GB. Not disclosed by Micron.
Price per unit $3M drifting +9.5% per quarter $2.74M per PB, roughly $2.74/GB — high-cycle pricing for LPDDR and client DRAM.
Mobile and Client

Latest: $10.30B (2031Q3E)

Period Value
2025Q3 $3.25B
2025Q4 $3.76B
2026Q1 $4.25B
2026Q2 $7.71B
2026Q3 $11.52B
2026Q4E $13.58B
2027Q1E $15.20B
2027Q2E $16.43B
2027Q3E $17.35B
2027Q4E $18.02B
2028Q1E $18.52B
2028Q2E $18.56B
2028Q3E $17.87B
2028Q4E $17.14B
2029Q1E $16.42B
2029Q2E $15.70B
2029Q3E $15.00B
2029Q4E $14.32B
2030Q1E $13.67B
2030Q2E $13.04B
2030Q3E $12.44B
2030Q4E $11.87B
2031Q1E $11.32B
2031Q2E $10.80B
2031Q3E $10.30B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Gross margin here was 24% a year ago and 87% in the basis quarter, on a product line whose end markets — phones and PCs — grew by neither 24% nor 87%. Every point of that came from price, and this model gives most of it back: revenue ends the horizon about 40% below its 2027 peak.
  • Volume grows 5.5% a quarter until it hits the 6,000 PB ceiling around the middle of the horizon, then stops. Handset and PC unit volumes are flat, so all the growth is gigabytes per device, and this line gets what is left of the fab after the data centre is served.
  • This is where the China risk lands. CXMT now holds roughly 7% of global DRAM revenue and is expanding into exactly the mainstream DRAM the incumbents vacated to chase HBM; Apple has been testing its parts for devices sold in China. Mainstream mobile and client DRAM is the most substitutable thing Micron sells, which is why this line carries the fastest price decline and the lowest terminal margin of the four.
  • There is a feedback loop worth naming: NVIDIA's own commentary blames slower consumer PC demand on elevated memory prices. Micron's peak price is suppressing the volume of the very market this line serves, which is the mechanism by which memory cycles turn.
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