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META · Forward model · Family of Apps — Other · Superintelligence case

What has to happen in Family of Apps — Other

Model as of

This page changes Family of Apps — Other inside the complete META model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

META forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $1,341.93 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $7.11B 4% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $24.96B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Meta's own stated case, taken at face value: Meta Superintelligence Labs is worth the $130-145B a year it is costing, personal superintelligence becomes a product people pay for, business agents replace a chunk of what companies spend on software rather than a chunk of what they spend on ads, and Meta AI takes roughly a quarter of the consumer assistant market on distribution alone - about $26B a year, or four times what Meta earns from Reality Labs, Quest and glasses combined. Advertising still carries it - even here, the ad line is more than three quarters of terminal revenue, which is the finding rather than the flourish. What this case does NOT reach is a company where AI revenue rivals advertising: the two AI lines together would need to be roughly eight times the size this case gives them, and no disclosed driver produces that off two lines earning zero today. The honest version of the bet is that AI shows up as ad revenue - which is where this model already puts most of it.

Family of Apps — Other

Basis quarter$1.01B
Final quarter$7.11B
Implied CAGR+48%
Final revenue mix4%

Everything inside Family of Apps that is not an ad: WhatsApp paid messaging through the Business API, Meta Verified subscriptions, and the smaller service fees. It crossed $1B in a quarter for the first time in 2026 Q2, growing 73% year over year, which makes it the fastest line in the company and still 1.7% of it.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $690M Reported
2025 Q4 $801M Reported
2026 Q1 $885M Reported
2026 Q2 $1.01B Reported
WhatsApp Business API paid messagingMeta Verified subscriptionsOther service fees
Sequential growth +12.0%/qtr decaying toward +4.0% 12% a quarter, just under the 13.8% posted in 2026 Q2. The base is small enough for this to persist.
Family of Apps — Other

Latest: $7.11B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $510M
2025Q2 $583M
2025Q3 $690M
2025Q4 $801M
2026Q1 $885M
2026Q2 $1.01B
2026Q3E $1.16B
2026Q4E $1.33B
2027Q1E $1.51B
2027Q2E $1.70B
2027Q3E $1.91B
2027Q4E $2.12B
2028Q1E $2.36B
2028Q2E $2.60B
2028Q3E $2.87B
2028Q4E $3.14B
2029Q1E $3.44B
2029Q2E $3.75B
2029Q3E $4.09B
2029Q4E $4.44B
2030Q1E $4.82B
2030Q2E $5.22B
2030Q3E $5.65B
2030Q4E $6.11B
2031Q1E $6.59B
2031Q2E $7.11B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Carried as a growth rate because Meta discloses neither the paying business count nor the price per conversation, and inventing both to reach a number it already publishes would add precision without adding information.
  • 12% a quarter decaying to 4% is a deceleration from the 13.8% it just posted. Paid messaging is priced per conversation in markets where WhatsApp is the default channel, so volume can keep compounding well after the growth rate falls.
  • Margin is set below advertising at 35% gliding to 45%: messaging carries carrier and delivery costs an ad impression does not, and Meta Verified is priced against consumer willingness to pay rather than against an auction.
  • This is the line that would absorb any consumer Meta AI subscription, so if that ships and is not broken out, it lands here rather than in Business AI.
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