INTC · Forward model · Client Computing and Physical AI
What has to happen in Client Computing and Physical AI
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Client Computing and Physical AI
Basis quarter$8.88B
Final quarter$9.78B
Implied CAGR+2%
Final revenue mix46%
The PC and edge franchise, and no longer a volume story. In 2026 Q2 client volume fell 8% year over year while client ASP rose 27%, so the segment's $8,877M came from premium mix and demand-based pricing under a supply constraint Intel expects to ease over the second half of 2026. The projection therefore carries almost no sequential growth: volume recovery offsets ASP normalisation rather than adding to it.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$8.54B
Reported
2025 Q4
$8.19B
Reported
2026 Q1
$7.73B
Reported
2026 Q2
$8.88B
Reported
Client processors (notebook and desktop, reported collectively)Other CCPG: edge, physical AI and robotics silicon
Sequential growth
+0.3%/qtr
decaying toward +0.6%
+0.3% into 2026 Q3: Intel says client supply eases in H2, so returning volume roughly offsets ASP normalisation.
Client Computing and Physical AI
Latest: $9.78B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $8.27B |
| 2024Q2 | $8.14B |
| 2024Q3 | $8.16B |
| 2024Q4 | $8.77B |
| 2025Q1 | $7.63B |
| 2025Q2 | $7.87B |
| 2025Q3 | $8.54B |
| 2025Q4 | $8.19B |
| 2026Q1 | $7.73B |
| 2026Q2 | $8.88B |
| 2026Q3E | $8.90B |
| 2026Q4E | $8.93B |
| 2027Q1E | $8.97B |
| 2027Q2E | $9.00B |
| 2027Q3E | $9.04B |
| 2027Q4E | $9.08B |
| 2028Q1E | $9.12B |
| 2028Q2E | $9.16B |
| 2028Q3E | $9.21B |
| 2028Q4E | $9.26B |
| 2029Q1E | $9.30B |
| 2029Q2E | $9.35B |
| 2029Q3E | $9.40B |
| 2029Q4E | $9.45B |
| 2030Q1E | $9.51B |
| 2030Q2E | $9.56B |
| 2030Q3E | $9.61B |
| 2030Q4E | $9.67B |
| 2031Q1E | $9.72B |
| 2031Q2E | $9.78B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Segment revenue is reported on the post-2025 basis that redistributed the former NEX segment into CCPG and DCAI. Intel recast comparatives only back to 2024 Q1, which is why the history is ten quarters and not twelve.
- Intel discloses client revenue only as a price/volume percentage decomposition - ASP +27%, volume -8% in 2026 Q2 - and never publishes absolute units or absolute ASPs, so a unit driver here would require inventing the base.
- The 26.4% EBITDA margin is the disclosed 26% segment operating margin ($2,343M on $8,877M); no depreciation is added to this line because Intel's manufacturing assets sit inside Intel Foundry.
- Q2 2026 already absorbed $669M of higher period charges taken to align product mix with customer demand, so the basis quarter is not a clean margin peak.