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What has to happen in Client Computing and Physical AI

Model as of

This page changes Client Computing and Physical AI inside the complete INTC model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

INTC forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $100.06 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $14.53B 42% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $54.68B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The CEO's own framing taken at face value across all four lines he names - CPU franchise, ASICs, advanced packaging and wafer foundry network - rather than only the CPU and server lines the disclosure can evidence. It needs external foundry and advanced packaging to become material, and $293M of quarterly external revenue does not yet support that; it is here to make explicit what the base case deliberately does not reach. It takes revenue to $131.2B across the four quarters to 2031 Q2, more than double the $62.7B this model projects for 2026, and even then reaches $100.06 a share only with a 13.5x exit multiple and a 9% discount rate. What it does not do is justify the price on disclosed economics: the extra revenue is assumed, not contracted, and no 14A customer commitment has been quantified.

Client Computing and Physical AI

Basis quarter$8.88B
Final quarter$14.53B
Implied CAGR+10%
Final revenue mix42%

The PC and edge franchise, and no longer a volume story. In 2026 Q2 client volume fell 8% year over year while client ASP rose 27%, so the segment's $8,877M came from premium mix and demand-based pricing under a supply constraint Intel expects to ease over the second half of 2026. The projection therefore carries almost no sequential growth: volume recovery offsets ASP normalisation rather than adding to it.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $8.54B Reported
2025 Q4 $8.19B Reported
2026 Q1 $7.73B Reported
2026 Q2 $8.88B Reported
Client processors (notebook and desktop, reported collectively)Other CCPG: edge, physical AI and robotics silicon
Sequential growth +0.3%/qtr decaying toward +0.6% +0.3% into 2026 Q3: Intel says client supply eases in H2, so returning volume roughly offsets ASP normalisation.
Client Computing and Physical AI

Latest: $14.53B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $8.27B
2024Q2 $8.14B
2024Q3 $8.16B
2024Q4 $8.77B
2025Q1 $7.63B
2025Q2 $7.87B
2025Q3 $8.54B
2025Q4 $8.19B
2026Q1 $7.73B
2026Q2 $8.88B
2026Q3E $9.08B
2026Q4E $9.29B
2027Q1E $9.52B
2027Q2E $9.74B
2027Q3E $9.98B
2027Q4E $10.23B
2028Q1E $10.48B
2028Q2E $10.74B
2028Q3E $11.01B
2028Q4E $11.28B
2029Q1E $11.57B
2029Q2E $11.86B
2029Q3E $12.16B
2029Q4E $12.48B
2030Q1E $12.79B
2030Q2E $13.12B
2030Q3E $13.46B
2030Q4E $13.81B
2031Q1E $14.16B
2031Q2E $14.53B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Segment revenue is reported on the post-2025 basis that redistributed the former NEX segment into CCPG and DCAI. Intel recast comparatives only back to 2024 Q1, which is why the history is ten quarters and not twelve.
  • Intel discloses client revenue only as a price/volume percentage decomposition - ASP +27%, volume -8% in 2026 Q2 - and never publishes absolute units or absolute ASPs, so a unit driver here would require inventing the base.
  • The 26.4% EBITDA margin is the disclosed 26% segment operating margin ($2,343M on $8,877M); no depreciation is added to this line because Intel's manufacturing assets sit inside Intel Foundry.
  • Q2 2026 already absorbed $669M of higher period charges taken to align product mix with customer demand, so the basis quarter is not a clean margin peak.
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