INTC · Forward model · Data Center and AI
What has to happen in Data Center and AI
Model as of
This page changes Data Center and AI inside the complete INTC model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
Shares this vertical and portfolio case. Slider and horizon edits stay in your browser.
Data Center and AI
Basis quarter$6.26B
Final quarter$9.77B
Implied CAGR+9%
Final revenue mix46%
The growth engine and the core of the claim under test. DCAI revenue rose 59% year over year to $6,262M in 2026 Q2 on server ASP +48% and server volume +9%, with ASIC revenue inside 'Other DCAI' ($951M) growing faster than the segment. Intel says internal wafer supply, not demand, is the binding constraint and that it persists into 2027, so the model grows the line fast at first and then tapers as capacity arrives and ASPs normalise.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$4.12B
Reported
2025 Q4
$4.74B
Reported
2026 Q1
$5.05B
Reported
2026 Q2
$6.26B
Reported
Server CPUs (Xeon)Other DCAI: AI accelerators, NICs, IPUs and purpose-built silicon (ASICs)
Sequential growth
+3.0%/qtr
decaying toward +2.0%
+3.0% into 2026 Q3, the largest single contributor to the guided $15.8-16.8B range; supply, not demand, sets it.
Data Center and AI
Latest: $9.77B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $3.83B |
| 2024Q2 | $3.81B |
| 2024Q3 | $4.14B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.35B |
| 2025Q1 | $4.13B |
| 2025Q2 | $3.94B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.12B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.74B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.05B |
| 2026Q2 | $6.26B |
| 2026Q3E | $6.45B |
| 2026Q4E | $6.63B |
| 2027Q1E | $6.81B |
| 2027Q2E | $6.98B |
| 2027Q3E | $7.14B |
| 2027Q4E | $7.31B |
| 2028Q1E | $7.48B |
| 2028Q2E | $7.64B |
| 2028Q3E | $7.81B |
| 2028Q4E | $7.97B |
| 2029Q1E | $8.14B |
| 2029Q2E | $8.31B |
| 2029Q3E | $8.48B |
| 2029Q4E | $8.66B |
| 2030Q1E | $8.83B |
| 2030Q2E | $9.01B |
| 2030Q3E | $9.20B |
| 2030Q4E | $9.38B |
| 2031Q1E | $9.57B |
| 2031Q2E | $9.77B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Intel prints the server line only as a change, not a level: $5,311M of server revenue in 2026 Q2 is derived as segment revenue $6,262M less the disclosed Other DCAI $951M, and is used for context only, not as a driver input.
- No split into Xeon, Gaudi and ASIC is modelled because none is disclosed; Gaudi is not separately quantified anywhere in the 2026 filings.
- The 39.5% EBITDA margin is the segment operating margin implied by the disclosed segment table: consolidated operating income $1,796M plus corporate unallocated $1,416M less CCPG $2,343M, Foundry $(2,089)M, All Other $230M and eliminations $254M leaves $2,474M on $6,262M.
- A significant portion of current and anticipated revenue comes from Intel 7 products made in Israel, which Intel discloses is not insured for war-related business interruption.