← INTC forward model

INTC · Forward model · Intel Foundry · Tan case

What has to happen in Intel Foundry

Model as of

This page changes Intel Foundry inside the complete INTC model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

INTC forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $100.06 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $15.66B 45% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $62.90B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The CEO's own framing taken at face value across all four lines he names - CPU franchise, ASICs, advanced packaging and wafer foundry network - rather than only the CPU and server lines the disclosure can evidence. It needs external foundry and advanced packaging to become material, and $293M of quarterly external revenue does not yet support that; it is here to make explicit what the base case deliberately does not reach. It takes revenue to $131.2B across the four quarters to 2031 Q2, more than double the $62.7B this model projects for 2026, and even then reaches $100.06 a share only with a 13.5x exit multiple and a 9% discount rate. What it does not do is justify the price on disclosed economics: the extra revenue is assumed, not contracted, and no 14A customer commitment has been quantified.

Intel Foundry

Basis quarter$5.76B
Final quarter$15.66B
Implied CAGR+22%
Final revenue mix45%

Process technology, manufacturing and advanced packaging. Roughly 95% of its $5,765M of 2026 Q2 revenue is internal wafer transfer to Intel Products, so it barely moves consolidated revenue - but it carries the whole capital programme, all of the depreciation and a $(2,089)M quarterly segment operating loss. The external business is real and tiny: $293M in the quarter, and mostly Altera moving from subsidiary to customer.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $4.24B Reported
2025 Q4 $4.51B Reported
2026 Q1 $5.42B Reported
2026 Q2 $5.76B Reported
Intersegment wafer, assembly/test and advanced packaging supply to Intel ProductsExternal foundry services
Sequential growth +2.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.8% +2.0% into 2026 Q3 on higher Intel 18A, Intel 3 and Intel 4 wafer volumes, which Intel says carry higher ASPs.
Intel Foundry

Latest: $15.66B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $4.36B
2024Q2 $4.28B
2024Q3 $4.34B
2024Q4 $4.34B
2025Q1 $4.67B
2025Q2 $4.42B
2025Q3 $4.24B
2025Q4 $4.51B
2026Q1 $5.42B
2026Q2 $5.76B
2026Q3E $6.07B
2026Q4E $6.39B
2027Q1E $6.72B
2027Q2E $7.07B
2027Q3E $7.43B
2027Q4E $7.81B
2028Q1E $8.22B
2028Q2E $8.64B
2028Q3E $9.08B
2028Q4E $9.54B
2029Q1E $10.03B
2029Q2E $10.54B
2029Q3E $11.08B
2029Q4E $11.64B
2030Q1E $12.23B
2030Q2E $12.85B
2030Q3E $13.50B
2030Q4E $14.19B
2031Q1E $14.91B
2031Q2E $15.66B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • External foundry revenue is not modelled as its own vertical: Intel discloses it only from 2025 Q1 and does not break out 2025 Q3 or 2025 Q4, so four of the ten quarters would be gaps.
  • The 14.9% EBITDA margin is the disclosed (36)% segment operating margin with the whole of Intel's depreciation added back - $5,891M in 2026 H1, about $2,950M in the quarter - because substantially all of the depreciating manufacturing base sits in this segment.
  • The margin glides toward 50% - reaching 43% by 2031 Q2 - because depreciation grows with the capital programme while the segment operating margin improves only to the assumed (10)%; the cash cost of that capital is charged separately as a corporate programme, so nothing is double counted.
  • The 2026 Q2 loss improvement was charge relief, not operating leverage: $1.4B of lower period charges, against $340M of lower product profit from the higher-cost Intel 18A wafer mix.
INTC model map

Explore another vertical