INTC · Forward model · Intel Foundry · Bear case
What has to happen in Intel Foundry
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Intel Foundry
Basis quarter$5.76B
Final quarter$6.55B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix43%
Process technology, manufacturing and advanced packaging. Roughly 95% of its $5,765M of 2026 Q2 revenue is internal wafer transfer to Intel Products, so it barely moves consolidated revenue - but it carries the whole capital programme, all of the depreciation and a $(2,089)M quarterly segment operating loss. The external business is real and tiny: $293M in the quarter, and mostly Altera moving from subsidiary to customer.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$4.24B
Reported
2025 Q4
$4.51B
Reported
2026 Q1
$5.42B
Reported
2026 Q2
$5.76B
Reported
Intersegment wafer, assembly/test and advanced packaging supply to Intel ProductsExternal foundry services
Sequential growth
+2.0%/qtr
decaying toward +1.8%
+2.0% into 2026 Q3 on higher Intel 18A, Intel 3 and Intel 4 wafer volumes, which Intel says carry higher ASPs.
Intel Foundry
Latest: $6.55B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $4.36B |
| 2024Q2 | $4.28B |
| 2024Q3 | $4.34B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.34B |
| 2025Q1 | $4.67B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.42B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.24B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.51B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.42B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.76B |
| 2026Q3E | $5.81B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.85B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.90B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.94B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.98B |
| 2027Q4E | $6.02B |
| 2028Q1E | $6.06B |
| 2028Q2E | $6.09B |
| 2028Q3E | $6.13B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.17B |
| 2029Q1E | $6.21B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.25B |
| 2029Q3E | $6.29B |
| 2029Q4E | $6.32B |
| 2030Q1E | $6.36B |
| 2030Q2E | $6.40B |
| 2030Q3E | $6.44B |
| 2030Q4E | $6.48B |
| 2031Q1E | $6.51B |
| 2031Q2E | $6.55B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- External foundry revenue is not modelled as its own vertical: Intel discloses it only from 2025 Q1 and does not break out 2025 Q3 or 2025 Q4, so four of the ten quarters would be gaps.
- The 14.9% EBITDA margin is the disclosed (36)% segment operating margin with the whole of Intel's depreciation added back - $5,891M in 2026 H1, about $2,950M in the quarter - because substantially all of the depreciating manufacturing base sits in this segment.
- The margin glides toward 50% - reaching 43% by 2031 Q2 - because depreciation grows with the capital programme while the segment operating margin improves only to the assumed (10)%; the cash cost of that capital is charged separately as a corporate programme, so nothing is double counted.
- The 2026 Q2 loss improvement was charge relief, not operating leverage: $1.4B of lower period charges, against $340M of lower product profit from the higher-cost Intel 18A wafer mix.