INTC · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-27

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Five revenue lines - CCPG, DCAI, Intel Foundry, All Other and intersegment eliminations as an explicit negative contra-line - because that is the only shape that reproduces reported consolidated revenue with zero residual in every one of the ten disclosed quarters (2026 Q2: 8,877 + 6,262 + 5,765 + 701 - 5,477 = 16,128). History runs from 2024 Q1 because Intel reorganised its segments in 2025 Q1 and recast comparatives only that far; no pre-2024 quarter exists on this basis and none has been spliced in. Every actual is disclosed, so nothing in the history is marked estimated. Nothing below the segment line is modelled: notebook versus desktop is reported collectively, Xeon versus Gaudi versus ASIC is not split, and no absolute unit, ASP, wafer volume or capacity figure appears in any Intel filing - which is why all five lines carry growth drivers and none carries a unit or capacity driver. All five verticals are aseasonal on the brief's own evidence: derived two-window factors would put 2026 Q3 at $16.95B on zero underlying growth, above the top of Intel's guided range. Depreciation is carried entirely inside Intel Foundry, which is where the depreciating manufacturing base sits, so that segment's EBITDA margin is positive while its operating margin is not; the cash cost of that capital is charged separately through the four corporate capital programmes, none of which belongs to a single vertical. Corporate overhead of 8.78% of revenue is the disclosed 2026 Q2 corporate unallocated expense of $1,416M, held as a constant share of revenue. Tax is the disclosed 11% non-GAAP rate; the GAAP rate of (0.3)% is meaningless as a forward rate. GAAP earnings are unusable while the Escrowed Shares derivative dominates them - a $12,529M non-operating mark-to-market loss in 2026 Q2, worth $2.45 of the $(2.16) GAAP EPS, driven entirely by Intel's own share price rising. Shares of 5,285M and net cash of $1,810M are pro forma for the 12 August 2026 sale of 242,105,262 shares at $95.00; the price of $88.24 is the 26 August 2026 close and supersedes the stale $140.94 in the company profile.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

Capex outside the verticals

Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.

The projected path

The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.