INTC · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Five revenue lines - CCPG, DCAI, Intel Foundry, All Other and intersegment eliminations as an explicit negative contra-line - because that is the only shape that reproduces reported consolidated revenue with zero residual in every one of the ten disclosed quarters (2026 Q2: 8,877 + 6,262 + 5,765 + 701 - 5,477 = 16,128). History runs from 2024 Q1 because Intel reorganised its segments in 2025 Q1 and recast comparatives only that far; no pre-2024 quarter exists on this basis and none has been spliced in. Every actual is disclosed, so nothing in the history is marked estimated. Nothing below the segment line is modelled: notebook versus desktop is reported collectively, Xeon versus Gaudi versus ASIC is not split, and no absolute unit, ASP, wafer volume or capacity figure appears in any Intel filing - which is why all five lines carry growth drivers and none carries a unit or capacity driver. All five verticals are aseasonal on the brief's own evidence: derived two-window factors would put 2026 Q3 at $16.95B on zero underlying growth, above the top of Intel's guided range. Depreciation is carried entirely inside Intel Foundry, which is where the depreciating manufacturing base sits, so that segment's EBITDA margin is positive while its operating margin is not; the cash cost of that capital is charged separately through the four corporate capital programmes, none of which belongs to a single vertical. Corporate overhead of 8.78% of revenue is the disclosed 2026 Q2 corporate unallocated expense of $1,416M, held as a constant share of revenue. Tax is the disclosed 11% non-GAAP rate; the GAAP rate of (0.3)% is meaningless as a forward rate. GAAP earnings are unusable while the Escrowed Shares derivative dominates them - a $12,529M non-operating mark-to-market loss in 2026 Q2, worth $2.45 of the $(2.16) GAAP EPS, driven entirely by Intel's own share price rising. Shares of 5,285M and net cash of $1,810M are pro forma for the 12 August 2026 sale of 242,105,262 shares at $95.00; the price of $88.24 is the 26 August 2026 close and supersedes the stale $140.94 in the company profile.
Scarcity pricing unwinds and the capital programme keeps rising into it. Intel itself says client supply constraints ease over the second half of 2026, and client volume is already falling 8% year over year, so if the 27% ASP gain reverses there is no unit growth underneath it - this case steps client revenue down 8% from 2027 Q1 and server revenue down 12% from 2027 Q3, as price events that leave wafer volume, and therefore Intel Foundry, untouched. Foundry's 2026 Q2 loss improvement was $1.4B of lower period charges against $340M of lower product profit on costlier 18A wafers. Revenue ends 2030 at about $60B, below 2026. The capital programme is held at the base-case schedule in every case, which Intel would not do in this world, so the free cash flow path here is harsher than reality.
Latest: $15.11B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $12.72B |
| 2024Q2 | $12.83B |
| 2024Q3 | $13.28B |
| 2024Q4 | $14.26B |
| 2025Q1 | $12.67B |
| 2025Q2 | $12.86B |
| 2025Q3 | $13.65B |
| 2025Q4 | $13.67B |
| 2026Q1 | $13.58B |
| 2026Q2 | $16.13B |
| 2026Q3E | $16.17B |
| 2026Q4E | $16.21B |
| 2027Q1E | $15.55B |
| 2027Q2E | $15.58B |
| 2027Q3E | $14.81B |
| 2027Q4E | $14.83B |
| 2028Q1E | $14.85B |
| 2028Q2E | $14.87B |
| 2028Q3E | $14.88B |
| 2028Q4E | $14.90B |
| 2029Q1E | $14.92B |
| 2029Q2E | $14.94B |
| 2029Q3E | $14.96B |
| 2029Q4E | $14.98B |
| 2030Q1E | $15.00B |
| 2030Q2E | $15.02B |
| 2030Q3E | $15.04B |
| 2030Q4E | $15.06B |
| 2031Q1E | $15.09B |
| 2031Q2E | $15.11B |
What drives each segment
Client Computing and Physical AI
Growth pathThe PC and edge franchise, and no longer a volume story. In 2026 Q2 client volume fell 8% year over year while client ASP rose 27%, so the segment's $8,877M came from premium mix and demand-based pricing under a supply constraint Intel expects to ease over the second half of 2026. The projection therefore carries almost no sequential growth: volume recovery offsets ASP normalisation rather than adding to it.
Latest: $7.07B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $8.27B |
| 2024Q2 | $8.14B |
| 2024Q3 | $8.16B |
| 2024Q4 | $8.77B |
| 2025Q1 | $7.63B |
| 2025Q2 | $7.87B |
| 2025Q3 | $8.54B |
| 2025Q4 | $8.19B |
| 2026Q1 | $7.73B |
| 2026Q2 | $8.88B |
| 2026Q3E | $8.80B |
| 2026Q4E | $8.72B |
| 2027Q1E | $7.96B |
| 2027Q2E | $7.89B |
| 2027Q3E | $7.83B |
| 2027Q4E | $7.77B |
| 2028Q1E | $7.71B |
| 2028Q2E | $7.66B |
| 2028Q3E | $7.60B |
| 2028Q4E | $7.55B |
| 2029Q1E | $7.50B |
| 2029Q2E | $7.44B |
| 2029Q3E | $7.39B |
| 2029Q4E | $7.35B |
| 2030Q1E | $7.30B |
| 2030Q2E | $7.25B |
| 2030Q3E | $7.20B |
| 2030Q4E | $7.16B |
| 2031Q1E | $7.11B |
| 2031Q2E | $7.07B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Segment revenue is reported on the post-2025 basis that redistributed the former NEX segment into CCPG and DCAI. Intel recast comparatives only back to 2024 Q1, which is why the history is ten quarters and not twelve.
- Intel discloses client revenue only as a price/volume percentage decomposition - ASP +27%, volume -8% in 2026 Q2 - and never publishes absolute units or absolute ASPs, so a unit driver here would require inventing the base.
- The 26.4% EBITDA margin is the disclosed 26% segment operating margin ($2,343M on $8,877M); no depreciation is added to this line because Intel's manufacturing assets sit inside Intel Foundry.
- Q2 2026 already absorbed $669M of higher period charges taken to align product mix with customer demand, so the basis quarter is not a clean margin peak.
Data Center and AI
Growth pathThe growth engine and the core of the claim under test. DCAI revenue rose 59% year over year to $6,262M in 2026 Q2 on server ASP +48% and server volume +9%, with ASIC revenue inside 'Other DCAI' ($951M) growing faster than the segment. Intel says internal wafer supply, not demand, is the binding constraint and that it persists into 2027, so the model grows the line fast at first and then tapers as capacity arrives and ASPs normalise.
Latest: $6.75B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $3.83B |
| 2024Q2 | $3.81B |
| 2024Q3 | $4.14B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.35B |
| 2025Q1 | $4.13B |
| 2025Q2 | $3.94B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.12B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.74B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.05B |
| 2026Q2 | $6.26B |
| 2026Q3E | $6.37B |
| 2026Q4E | $6.47B |
| 2027Q1E | $6.56B |
| 2027Q2E | $6.65B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.92B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.98B |
| 2028Q1E | $6.05B |
| 2028Q2E | $6.11B |
| 2028Q3E | $6.16B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.22B |
| 2029Q1E | $6.27B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.33B |
| 2029Q3E | $6.38B |
| 2029Q4E | $6.43B |
| 2030Q1E | $6.49B |
| 2030Q2E | $6.54B |
| 2030Q3E | $6.59B |
| 2030Q4E | $6.64B |
| 2031Q1E | $6.70B |
| 2031Q2E | $6.75B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Intel prints the server line only as a change, not a level: $5,311M of server revenue in 2026 Q2 is derived as segment revenue $6,262M less the disclosed Other DCAI $951M, and is used for context only, not as a driver input.
- No split into Xeon, Gaudi and ASIC is modelled because none is disclosed; Gaudi is not separately quantified anywhere in the 2026 filings.
- The 39.5% EBITDA margin is the segment operating margin implied by the disclosed segment table: consolidated operating income $1,796M plus corporate unallocated $1,416M less CCPG $2,343M, Foundry $(2,089)M, All Other $230M and eliminations $254M leaves $2,474M on $6,262M.
- A significant portion of current and anticipated revenue comes from Intel 7 products made in Israel, which Intel discloses is not insured for war-related business interruption.
Intel Foundry
Growth pathProcess technology, manufacturing and advanced packaging. Roughly 95% of its $5,765M of 2026 Q2 revenue is internal wafer transfer to Intel Products, so it barely moves consolidated revenue - but it carries the whole capital programme, all of the depreciation and a $(2,089)M quarterly segment operating loss. The external business is real and tiny: $293M in the quarter, and mostly Altera moving from subsidiary to customer.
Latest: $6.55B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $4.36B |
| 2024Q2 | $4.28B |
| 2024Q3 | $4.34B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.34B |
| 2025Q1 | $4.67B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.42B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.24B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.51B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.42B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.76B |
| 2026Q3E | $5.81B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.85B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.90B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.94B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.98B |
| 2027Q4E | $6.02B |
| 2028Q1E | $6.06B |
| 2028Q2E | $6.09B |
| 2028Q3E | $6.13B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.17B |
| 2029Q1E | $6.21B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.25B |
| 2029Q3E | $6.29B |
| 2029Q4E | $6.32B |
| 2030Q1E | $6.36B |
| 2030Q2E | $6.40B |
| 2030Q3E | $6.44B |
| 2030Q4E | $6.48B |
| 2031Q1E | $6.51B |
| 2031Q2E | $6.55B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- External foundry revenue is not modelled as its own vertical: Intel discloses it only from 2025 Q1 and does not break out 2025 Q3 or 2025 Q4, so four of the ten quarters would be gaps.
- The 14.9% EBITDA margin is the disclosed (36)% segment operating margin with the whole of Intel's depreciation added back - $5,891M in 2026 H1, about $2,950M in the quarter - because substantially all of the depreciating manufacturing base sits in this segment.
- The margin glides toward 50% - reaching 43% by 2031 Q2 - because depreciation grows with the capital programme while the segment operating margin improves only to the assumed (10)%; the cash cost of that capital is charged separately as a corporate programme, so nothing is double counted.
- The 2026 Q2 loss improvement was charge relief, not operating leverage: $1.4B of lower period charges, against $340M of lower product profit from the higher-cost Intel 18A wafer mix.
All Other
Growth pathA residual bucket of unlike businesses rather than a business: Mobileye at $507M in 2026 Q2, IMS multi-beam mask writing tools, and start-ups. The line halved when Altera was deconsolidated on 12 September 2025, which is why the 2025 Q4 print of $574M sits so far below the $1,113M of 2024 Q4. The projection starts from the post-Altera base and grows with Mobileye, not with Intel.
Latest: $646M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $643M |
| 2024Q2 | $881M |
| 2024Q3 | $964M |
| 2024Q4 | $1.11B |
| 2025Q1 | $943M |
| 2025Q2 | $1.05B |
| 2025Q3 | $993M |
| 2025Q4 | $574M |
| 2026Q1 | $628M |
| 2026Q2 | $701M |
| 2026Q3E | $698M |
| 2026Q4E | $695M |
| 2027Q1E | $692M |
| 2027Q2E | $690M |
| 2027Q3E | $687M |
| 2027Q4E | $684M |
| 2028Q1E | $681M |
| 2028Q2E | $678M |
| 2028Q3E | $676M |
| 2028Q4E | $673M |
| 2029Q1E | $670M |
| 2029Q2E | $667M |
| 2029Q3E | $665M |
| 2029Q4E | $662M |
| 2030Q1E | $659M |
| 2030Q2E | $656M |
| 2030Q3E | $654M |
| 2030Q4E | $651M |
| 2031Q1E | $648M |
| 2031Q2E | $646M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The 2025 Q4 fall is a structural break from the Altera deconsolidation, not a seasonal trough; any growth path has to start from the post-Altera base of $574M to $701M a quarter.
- Mobileye is separately listed and consolidated, so this line carries a business whose product cycle Intel does not control and whose margins are cyclical.
- The 32.8% EBITDA margin is the disclosed 33% segment operating margin ($230M on $701M) and glides down to an assumed 18%, because one quarter at 33% on a residual bucket is not a run rate.
Intersegment eliminations
Growth pathNot a business line but the contra-line that makes the model reconcile: it removes Intel Foundry's internal wafer sales to Intel Products on consolidation. It is the only shape that reproduces reported consolidated revenue with zero residual in all ten disclosed quarters, and it is projected as a coupled ratio of Intel Foundry revenue rather than as an independent growth line.
Latest: -$5.90B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | -$4.38B |
| 2024Q2 | -$4.28B |
| 2024Q3 | -$4.32B |
| 2024Q4 | -$4.31B |
| 2025Q1 | -$4.70B |
| 2025Q2 | -$4.42B |
| 2025Q3 | -$4.23B |
| 2025Q4 | -$4.34B |
| 2026Q1 | -$5.25B |
| 2026Q2 | -$5.48B |
| 2026Q3E | -$5.50B |
| 2026Q4E | -$5.53B |
| 2027Q1E | -$5.56B |
| 2027Q2E | -$5.58B |
| 2027Q3E | -$5.60B |
| 2027Q4E | -$5.63B |
| 2028Q1E | -$5.65B |
| 2028Q2E | -$5.67B |
| 2028Q3E | -$5.69B |
| 2028Q4E | -$5.71B |
| 2029Q1E | -$5.73B |
| 2029Q2E | -$5.75B |
| 2029Q3E | -$5.77B |
| 2029Q4E | -$5.79B |
| 2030Q1E | -$5.81B |
| 2030Q2E | -$5.83B |
| 2030Q3E | -$5.85B |
| 2030Q4E | -$5.86B |
| 2031Q1E | -$5.88B |
| 2031Q2E | -$5.90B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The ratio of eliminations to Intel Foundry revenue sat near 1.00 through 2025 Q3 and has fallen to 0.950 as external foundry revenue ramped from $22M in 2025 Q2 to $293M in 2026 Q2.
- The growth rate here is deliberately 0.27 points below Intel Foundry's in both the first and terminal quarter, which glides the ratio from 0.948 in 2026 Q3 to 0.901 by 2031 Q2 - the assumed terminal 0.90 - without an independent driver.
- The EBITDA margin is negative on a negative revenue line and so contributes positive EBITDA: the disclosed $254M of eliminations operating income on $(5,477)M of eliminated revenue is (4.64)%.
- Modelled as an independent growth line rather than as a coupled ratio, this vertical would silently break the consolidated revenue total by hundreds of millions a quarter.
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
What Intel disclosed about the price-led quarter
- Jul 24, 2026 This increase in client revenue was partially offset by volume decreases of 8% compared to Q2 2025 and 10% compared to YTD 2025.
- Jul 24, 2026 primarily driven by $1.4 billion of lower period charges, including the absence of $797 million of non-cash asset impairment and accelerated depreciation charges recognized in Q2 2025 ... partially offset by $340 million of lower product profit in Q2 2026, driven by an increased mix of higher-cost wafers manufactured on our Intel 18A process node.
- Jul 23, 2026 2027 capital expenditures [will be] significantly above the 2026 levels, with vast majority spent across U.S. network.
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
What management said about supply and spending
- Jul 23, 2026 Forecasting third-quarter 2026 revenue of $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion
- Jul 23, 2026 We're raising our outlook for 2026 and now expect our CapEx to be more than $20 billion
- Jul 23, 2026 Intel Q2 2026 slides: revenue surges 25%, AI drives record growth; tooling to increase 40% in 2026 relative to 2025
Tan case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Tan column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The claim under test, and what backs it
- Jul 23, 2026 Intel is well-positioned to capture sustainable growth across our CPU franchise, ASICs, advanced packaging and vast wafer foundry network.
- Jul 24, 2026 External revenue was $293 million in Q2 2026, up $271 million from Q2 2025 ... primarily due to Altera's transition to an external customer following the deconsolidation of Altera in Q3 2025.
- Aug 12, 2026 approximately $22.62 billion if the underwriters exercise in full their option to purchase additional shares
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | -$23.17B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $60.30B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $20.92B |
| Exit multiple, on ebitda | 8.0x |
| Terminal value | $167.37B |
| Discounted at 12.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $94.97B |
| Enterprise value | $71.80B |
| Net cash | $1.81B |
| Equity value | $73.61B |
| Shares | 5.29B |
| Fair value per share | $13.93 |
| Against the current price of $92.09 | -85% |
A consolidated DCF with an EV/EBITDA exit, because Intel discloses no segment assets and no standalone Intel Foundry balance sheet, which rules out the sum-of-the-parts frame that a company with one profitable and one loss-making half would otherwise deserve. 10% discount rate for a capital-intensive cyclical manufacturer whose largest segment still loses money and whose balance sheet only just turned to net cash - $29.7B of cash and short-term investments against $50.5B of debt at 27 June 2026, then $22.62B of net proceeds from the August 2026 equity raise. 10x terminal EBITDA sits inside the 8-13x band this model treats as honest and above Intel's own pre-2021 trading history; no comparable multiple set has been sourced to a primary document, so the exit multiple is the number to argue with. On the base path it produces $36.62 a share against $88.24, and the whole of that gap is the multiple and the terminal margin: the market is paying about 15x the model's own 2031 EBITDA of $30.8B, today.
Read the other way round: at $92.09 the market is paying 42.8x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
Capex outside the verticals
Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.
2026 second-half tooling ramp
2026 Q3 → 2026 Q4CFO David Zinsner on the 2026 Q2 call raised full-year 2026 capital expenditure to more than $20B, about $3B above the prior plan, with tooling up 40% on 2025. Against $6.2B of property additions in 2026 H1 that leaves roughly $13.6B across 2026 Q3 and Q4.
2027 U.S. network build
2027 Q1 → 2027 Q4Zinsner guided 2027 capital expenditure 'significantly above the 2026 levels, with vast majority spent across U.S. network' and gave no figure. $26B is the assumed point inside the $24-30B band this model treats as the honest range; it is not guided.
2028-2029 Intel 14A capacity
2028 Q1 → 2029 Q4Intel committed to completing 14A development in 2026 Q2 with high-volume ramp in 2028, and says the scale of expansion will be dictated by committed 14A demand. $25B a year across 2028 and 2029 is assumed, not disclosed.
2030-2031 node cadence and maintenance
2030 Q1 → 2031 Q2An assumed step down to about $22.7B a year once the 14A build is absorbed, which is roughly 25% of projected revenue - below TSMC's intensity and above Intel's pre-2021 level. No company statement reaches this far.
The projected path
| Quarter | Client Computing and Physical AI | Data Center and AI | Intel Foundry | All Other | Intersegment eliminations | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $8.80B | $6.37B | $5.81B | $698M | -$5.50B | $16.17B | +18% | $4.21B | $6.80B | -$2.59B | +2 | -$2.52B |
| 2026 Q4E | $8.72B | $6.47B | $5.85B | $695M | -$5.53B | $16.21B | +19% | $4.32B | $6.80B | -$2.48B | +3 | -$2.35B |
| 2027 Q1E | $7.96B | $6.56B | $5.90B | $692M | -$5.56B | $15.55B | +15% | $4.33B | $6.50B | -$2.17B | +1 | -$2.00B |
| 2027 Q2E | $7.89B | $6.65B | $5.94B | $690M | -$5.58B | $15.58B | -3% | $4.42B | $6.50B | -$2.08B | -17 | -$1.85B |
| 2027 Q3E | $7.83B | $5.92B | $5.98B | $687M | -$5.60B | $14.81B | -8% | $4.32B | $6.50B | -$2.18B | -23 | -$1.89B |
| 2027 Q4E | $7.77B | $5.98B | $6.02B | $684M | -$5.63B | $14.83B | -9% | $4.41B | $6.50B | -$2.09B | -23 | -$1.76B |
| 2028 Q1E | $7.71B | $6.05B | $6.06B | $681M | -$5.65B | $14.85B | -5% | $4.49B | $6.25B | -$1.76B | -16 | -$1.44B |
| 2028 Q2E | $7.66B | $6.11B | $6.09B | $678M | -$5.67B | $14.87B | -5% | $4.57B | $6.25B | -$1.68B | -16 | -$1.34B |
| 2028 Q3E | $7.60B | $6.16B | $6.13B | $676M | -$5.69B | $14.88B | +1% | $4.65B | $6.25B | -$1.60B | -10 | -$1.24B |
| 2028 Q4E | $7.55B | $6.22B | $6.17B | $673M | -$5.71B | $14.90B | +0% | $4.72B | $6.25B | -$1.53B | -10 | -$1.15B |
| 2029 Q1E | $7.50B | $6.27B | $6.21B | $670M | -$5.73B | $14.92B | +0% | $4.79B | $6.25B | -$1.46B | -9 | -$1.07B |
| 2029 Q2E | $7.44B | $6.33B | $6.25B | $667M | -$5.75B | $14.94B | +0% | $4.86B | $6.25B | -$1.39B | -9 | -$991M |
| 2029 Q3E | $7.39B | $6.38B | $6.29B | $665M | -$5.77B | $14.96B | +0% | $4.92B | $6.25B | -$1.33B | -8 | -$919M |
| 2029 Q4E | $7.35B | $6.43B | $6.32B | $662M | -$5.79B | $14.98B | +1% | $4.98B | $6.25B | -$1.27B | -8 | -$852M |
| 2030 Q1E | $7.30B | $6.49B | $6.36B | $659M | -$5.81B | $15.00B | +1% | $5.04B | $5.67B | -$624M | -4 | -$408M |
| 2030 Q2E | $7.25B | $6.54B | $6.40B | $656M | -$5.83B | $15.02B | +1% | $5.10B | $5.67B | -$568M | -3 | -$361M |
| 2030 Q3E | $7.20B | $6.59B | $6.44B | $654M | -$5.85B | $15.04B | +1% | $5.15B | $5.67B | -$513M | -3 | -$317M |
| 2030 Q4E | $7.16B | $6.64B | $6.48B | $651M | -$5.86B | $15.06B | +1% | $5.21B | $5.67B | -$461M | -2 | -$277M |
| 2031 Q1E | $7.11B | $6.70B | $6.51B | $648M | -$5.88B | $15.09B | +1% | $5.26B | $5.67B | -$410M | -2 | -$239M |
| 2031 Q2E | $7.07B | $6.75B | $6.55B | $646M | -$5.90B | $15.11B | +1% | $5.31B | $5.67B | -$361M | -2 | -$205M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | all | $36.62 | First published model, built on the 2026 Q2 basis quarter from the verified research brief: ten quarters of five-line segment revenue that reconcile to reported consolidated revenue with zero residual, the guided 2026 Q3 range, and the pro-forma share count and net cash after the August 2026 equity raise. |