GLW · Forward model · Bull case
The Bull case, 18 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Every revenue figure in this model is on Corning's non-GAAP CORE basis, because that is the basis of the reported segment table: the five segments sum to $4,738m in 2026 Q2, not to the $4,505m of GAAP net sales, and the $233m difference is the adjustment for hedged exposures. Guidance and the Nasdaq consensus are on the same core basis. Anyone reconciling these verticals against the GAAP revenue in our stored series will find that gap and it is not a modelling error. The five verticals are Corning's own reported segments and sum exactly to disclosed core sales in every one of the ten quarters shown. History starts at 2024 Q1 because the Automotive and Solar segments only exist on this definition from the 2026 Q1 recast exhibit backwards to 2024; Optical Communications and Glass Innovations have disclosed 2023 quarters but the other three do not, and padding them with zeros would invent a consolidated 2023 that never happened. Segment EBITDA margins and capex intensities are DERIVED from the 10-Q segment table by adding depreciation back to segment pretax income; they are not disclosed margins, and segment income is struck after a notional tax and before corporate unallocated amounts, which is why a 1.96% corporate overhead line bridges the five segments to core EBITDA. All forward growth rates, margin glides, capital intensities and the exit multiple are ASSUMED. Corning has published no segment-level 2028 or 2030 target - the Springboard milestones are consolidated only - so the allocation of the plan across segments is a modelling judgement, stated as such in the Springboard 2030 case rather than presented as guidance.
Shares this page's scenario. Driver and horizon edits stay in your browser — the recipient sees the published model.
Latest: $10.47B (2030Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $3.26B |
| 2024Q2 | $3.60B |
| 2024Q3 | $3.73B |
| 2024Q4 | $3.87B |
| 2025Q1 | $3.68B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.04B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.27B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.41B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.34B |
| 2026Q2 | $4.74B |
| 2026Q3E | $5.02B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.15B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.32B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.67B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.99B |
| 2027Q4E | $6.16B |
| 2028Q1E | $6.37B |
| 2028Q2E | $6.76B |
| 2028Q3E | $7.14B |
| 2028Q4E | $7.35B |
| 2029Q1E | $7.61B |
| 2029Q2E | $8.06B |
| 2029Q3E | $8.49B |
| 2029Q4E | $8.77B |
| 2030Q1E | $9.09B |
| 2030Q2E | $9.61B |
| 2030Q3E | $10.11B |
| 2030Q4E | $10.47B |
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
What the basis quarter actually showed
What a de-stocking cycle did to the same line
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
What is already pre-paid and already contracted
Springboard 2030 case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Springboard 2030 column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The plan, as stated
- Jul 28, 2026 The company's internal Springboard Plan is to grow sales to an annualized run rate of $20 billion by the end of 2026, $30 billion by the end of 2028, and $40 billion by the end of 2030.
- Jul 28, 2026 The company expects to deliver a sales CAGR of 19% from Q4 2026 to Q4 2030 - while growing earnings faster than sales, with significantly higher returns on invested capital and substantially more free cash flow.
What the run rate means
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 8.5% a year with an exit multiple of 22.0x on EBITDA. The horizon and sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 18 quarters | $19.85B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $39.28B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $12.55B |
| Exit multiple, on EBITDA | 22.0x |
| Terminal value | $276.11B |
| Discounted at 8.5% a year, terminal value becomes | $191.27B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 91% |
| Enterprise value | $211.12B |
| Net cash | −$5.92B |
| Equity value | $205.20B |
| Shares | 0.88B |
| Fair value per share | $234.51 |
| Against the deployed price of $153.76, as of | +53% |
Corning trades at 28.3x TTM core EBITDA - $139,620m of enterprise value over $4,930m of TTM core EBITDA - and 7.9x TTM core sales. That is a growth multiple, so the terminal assumption is the single most sensitive input in this model. The base case exits at 17x, well below today's 28.3x, on the view that the AI-cycle premium compresses once the growth has actually been delivered. The bear case uses 13x, roughly where diversified materials trade, and the bull case 22x, which still assumes some premium survives to 2030. At a 9% discount rate the terminal value is most of the enterprise value, so the exit multiple matters more than any single driver.
Read the other way round: at $153.76 the market is paying 13.9x terminal-year EBITDA, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
The published model's 18 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.
| Quarter | Optical Communications | Glass Innovations | Automotive | Solar | Life Sciences and Emerging Growth Businesses | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $2.26B | $1.53B | $474M | $464M | $290M | $5.02B | +18% | $1.53B | $444M | $884M | +35 | $866M |
| 2026 Q4E | $2.46B | $1.44B | $476M | $490M | $286M | $5.15B | +17% | $1.57B | $455M | $905M | +34 | $869M |
| 2027 Q1E | $2.66B | $1.38B | $479M | $516M | $283M | $5.32B | +22% | $1.62B | $469M | $935M | +40 | $880M |
| 2027 Q2E | $2.88B | $1.49B | $481M | $541M | $280M | $5.67B | +20% | $1.74B | $498M | $1.01B | +38 | $934M |
| 2027 Q3E | $3.11B | $1.56B | $483M | $566M | $278M | $5.99B | +19% | $1.86B | $525M | $1.08B | +37 | $979M |
| 2027 Q4E | $3.34B | $1.47B | $485M | $591M | $276M | $6.16B | +20% | $1.91B | $540M | $1.11B | +38 | $985M |
| 2028 Q1E | $3.59B | $1.40B | $487M | $615M | $274M | $6.37B | +20% | $1.97B | $557M | $1.15B | +38 | $999M |
| 2028 Q2E | $3.85B | $1.51B | $489M | $640M | $273M | $6.76B | +19% | $2.11B | $590M | $1.24B | +38 | $1.05B |
| 2028 Q3E | $4.12B | $1.58B | $490M | $665M | $272M | $7.14B | +19% | $2.24B | $622M | $1.32B | +38 | $1.10B |
| 2028 Q4E | $4.41B | $1.49B | $492M | $689M | $271M | $7.35B | +19% | $2.31B | $640M | $1.36B | +38 | $1.11B |
| 2029 Q1E | $4.71B | $1.42B | $494M | $714M | $271M | $7.61B | +19% | $2.39B | $662M | $1.41B | +38 | $1.12B |
| 2029 Q2E | $5.02B | $1.53B | $495M | $739M | $270M | $8.06B | +19% | $2.55B | $701M | $1.51B | +38 | $1.18B |
| 2029 Q3E | $5.35B | $1.61B | $497M | $765M | $270M | $8.49B | +19% | $2.70B | $737M | $1.60B | +38 | $1.22B |
| 2029 Q4E | $5.70B | $1.51B | $498M | $791M | $270M | $8.77B | +19% | $2.78B | $762M | $1.65B | +38 | $1.24B |
| 2030 Q1E | $6.06B | $1.44B | $499M | $817M | $269M | $9.09B | +19% | $2.89B | $790M | $1.71B | +38 | $1.26B |
| 2030 Q2E | $6.44B | $1.56B | $501M | $844M | $269M | $9.61B | +19% | $3.07B | $835M | $1.82B | +38 | $1.31B |
| 2030 Q3E | $6.84B | $1.64B | $502M | $871M | $269M | $10.11B | +19% | $3.24B | $878M | $1.93B | +38 | $1.36B |
| 2030 Q4E | $7.26B | $1.54B | $504M | $899M | $270M | $10.47B | +19% | $3.35B | $910M | $1.99B | +38 | $1.38B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | $152.47 | Model created from the verified research brief on the 2026 Q2 core-basis segment table. Base case exits at 17x terminal EBITDA on a 9% discount rate. |