GLW · Forward model · Solar · Bull case
What has to happen in Solar
Model as of
This page changes Solar inside the complete GLW model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
Shares this vertical and portfolio case. Slider and horizon edits stay in your browser.
Solar
Hemlock Semiconductor polysilicon plus Corning's new US solar wafer and module manufacturing, made a reported segment in Q1 2026. Sales grew 90% year over year to $438m and management states a level target of 'more than $3 billion' of revenue with strong profit and cash flow, with no date attached. The basis quarter is depressed by a disclosed extended maintenance shutdown and equipment upgrade at the solar wafer facility that added about $30m of expense and produced a $7m segment net loss.
Latest: $899M (2030Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $216M |
| 2024Q2 | $199M |
| 2024Q3 | $194M |
| 2024Q4 | $256M |
| 2025Q1 | $206M |
| 2025Q2 | $231M |
| 2025Q3 | $319M |
| 2025Q4 | $475M |
| 2026Q1 | $370M |
| 2026Q2 | $438M |
| 2026Q3E | $464M |
| 2026Q4E | $490M |
| 2027Q1E | $516M |
| 2027Q2E | $541M |
| 2027Q3E | $566M |
| 2027Q4E | $591M |
| 2028Q1E | $615M |
| 2028Q2E | $640M |
| 2028Q3E | $665M |
| 2028Q4E | $689M |
| 2029Q1E | $714M |
| 2029Q2E | $739M |
| 2029Q3E | $765M |
| 2029Q4E | $791M |
| 2030Q1E | $817M |
| 2030Q2E | $844M |
| 2030Q3E | $871M |
| 2030Q4E | $899M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Management's words on the profitability path, quoted whole so the qualifier survives: 'We also expect an improving impact on earnings from Solar starting in Q3 as our ramp continues, building toward a revenue stream of more than $3 billion with strong profit and cash flow.' No date is attached to the $3 billion, so the date in this model is assumed, not disclosed.
- The 16.44% basis EBITDA margin is flattered by depreciation: the segment was pretax NEGATIVE at -5 in the quarter and the positive EBITDA is entirely the $77m depreciation add-back. The margin glide to 28% is therefore a recovery assumption, not an extension of a trend.
- Seasonality was measured and rejected. The arithmetic looks seasonal - a 0.413 signal against a 0.092 largest window spread - but the shape is a plant ramp: sales ran flat near $200m through 2024 then 206, 231, 319, 475, 370, 438. A centred moving average lags an accelerating series, which mechanically inflates the late Q4 ratios, and both Q4 windows sit inside the ramp.
- About 8% of consolidated net income is the Hemlock Semiconductor non-controlling interest and it sits inside this segment. The model values enterprise free cash flow before that minority, so per-share fair value is overstated to the extent the minority keeps growing with the line.