GLW · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 18 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-29

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Every revenue figure in this model is on Corning's non-GAAP CORE basis, because that is the basis of the reported segment table: the five segments sum to $4,738m in 2026 Q2, not to the $4,505m of GAAP net sales, and the $233m difference is the adjustment for hedged exposures. Guidance and the Nasdaq consensus are on the same core basis. Anyone reconciling these verticals against the GAAP revenue in our stored series will find that gap and it is not a modelling error. The five verticals are Corning's own reported segments and sum exactly to disclosed core sales in every one of the ten quarters shown. History starts at 2024 Q1 because the Automotive and Solar segments only exist on this definition from the 2026 Q1 recast exhibit backwards to 2024; Optical Communications and Glass Innovations have disclosed 2023 quarters but the other three do not, and padding them with zeros would invent a consolidated 2023 that never happened. Segment EBITDA margins and capex intensities are DERIVED from the 10-Q segment table by adding depreciation back to segment pretax income; they are not disclosed margins, and segment income is struck after a notional tax and before corporate unallocated amounts, which is why a 1.96% corporate overhead line bridges the five segments to core EBITDA. All forward growth rates, margin glides, capital intensities and the exit multiple are ASSUMED. Corning has published no segment-level 2028 or 2030 target - the Springboard milestones are consolidated only - so the allocation of the plan across segments is a modelling judgement, stated as such in the Springboard 2030 case rather than presented as guidance.

GLW forward model

Horizon

Fair value per share $89.57 −42% against $153.76

Terminal-year revenue $29.00B last four projected quarters

Enterprise value $84.29B $13.85B explicit + $70.44B terminal

Vertical contributions at a glance

The AI line is the whole company and everything else is flat or shrinking. In the basis quarter the four non-Optical segments together produced $2,666m against $2,479m a year earlier - 7.5% growth - while Solar posted a segment net loss and Life Sciences and Emerging Growth Businesses fell 15% year over year into a $21m loss. Corning has never published a segment-level 2030 target, so the $40 billion rests on an Optical Communications line that would have to roughly triple. Meanwhile the buyback has stopped and first-half capex is up 46% year over year to $754m. Optical's own recent history shows the downside: carrier de-stocking took it from $1,125m in 2023 Q1 to $903m in 2023 Q4 in four quarters. This case runs Optical 1.5 points a quarter slower, Solar the same, margins two points lower, and exits at 13x on a 10% discount rate. It reaches a $29.9 billion run rate at the end of 2030 - short of the $30 billion 2028 milestone, let alone $40 billion.

GLW REVENUE MODEL

Latest: $7.48B (2030Q4E)

Period	Value
2024Q1	$3.26B
2024Q2	$3.60B
2024Q3	$3.73B
2024Q4	$3.87B
2025Q1	$3.68B
2025Q2	$4.04B
2025Q3	$4.27B
2025Q4	$4.41B
2026Q1	$4.34B
2026Q2	$4.74B
2026Q3E	$4.95B
2026Q4E	$5.01B
2027Q1E	$5.08B
2027Q2E	$5.34B
2027Q3E	$5.55B
2027Q4E	$5.60B
2028Q1E	$5.68B
2028Q2E	$5.94B
2028Q3E	$6.16B
2028Q4E	$6.21B
2029Q1E	$6.29B
2029Q2E	$6.55B
2029Q3E	$6.77B
2029Q4E	$6.83B
2030Q1E	$6.91B
2030Q2E	$7.18B
2030Q3E	$7.42B
2030Q4E	$7.48B

Scenarios

Where each case comes from

Bear case — primary sources

The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.

What the basis quarter actually showed

What a de-stocking cycle did to the same line

Bull case — primary sources

The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.

What is already pre-paid and already contracted

Where the margin comes from

Apr 28, 2026 our polysilicon business performing above our 20% corporate operating margin target in the first quarter, and our module business is on track to cross over in the second quarter

Springboard 2030 case — primary sources

The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Springboard 2030 column is what happens if they are taken at face value.

The plan, as stated

What the run rate means

Jul 29, 2026 Springboard launched with an annualized sales run rate of $13 billion

Valuation

From cash flow to fair value

The published model, discounted at 10.0% a year with an exit multiple of 13.0x on EBITDA. The horizon and sliders above do not change this walk.

Present value of free cash flow, 18 quarters	$13.85B
Terminal-year revenue	$29.00B
Terminal-year EBITDA	$8.32B
Exit multiple, on EBITDA	13.0x
Terminal value	$108.16B
Discounted at 10.0% a year, terminal value becomes	$70.44B
Share of enterprise value from the terminal	84%
Enterprise value	$84.29B
Net cash	−$5.92B
Equity value	$78.37B
Shares	0.88B
Fair value per share	$89.57
Against the deployed price of $153.76, as of Oct 1, 2026	−42%

Corning trades at 28.3x TTM core EBITDA - $139,620m of enterprise value over $4,930m of TTM core EBITDA - and 7.9x TTM core sales. That is a growth multiple, so the terminal assumption is the single most sensitive input in this model. The base case exits at 17x, well below today's 28.3x, on the view that the AI-cycle premium compresses once the growth has actually been delivered. The bear case uses 13x, roughly where diversified materials trade, and the bull case 22x, which still assumes some premium survives to 2030. At a 9% discount rate the terminal value is most of the enterprise value, so the exit multiple matters more than any single driver.

Read the other way round: at $153.76 the market is paying 23.4x terminal-year EBITDA, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.

Quarter by quarter

The projected path

The published model's 18 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.

Quarter	Optical Communications	Glass Innovations	Automotive	Solar	Life Sciences and Emerging Growth Businesses	Revenue	YoY	EBITDA	Capex	FCF	R40	PV of FCF
2026 Q3E	$2.20B	$1.53B	$474M	$453M	$288M	$4.95B	+16%	$1.34B	$437M	$733M	+31	$715M
2026 Q4E	$2.34B	$1.44B	$476M	$467M	$283M	$5.01B	+13%	$1.35B	$440M	$741M	+28	$707M
2027 Q1E	$2.47B	$1.38B	$479M	$479M	$278M	$5.08B	+17%	$1.37B	$445M	$756M	+32	$703M
2027 Q2E	$2.61B	$1.49B	$481M	$490M	$274M	$5.34B	+13%	$1.46B	$465M	$811M	+28	$737M
2027 Q3E	$2.74B	$1.56B	$483M	$499M	$271M	$5.55B	+12%	$1.53B	$482M	$857M	+28	$761M
2027 Q4E	$2.88B	$1.47B	$485M	$508M	$268M	$5.60B	+12%	$1.55B	$485M	$865M	+27	$750M
2028 Q1E	$3.01B	$1.40B	$487M	$516M	$265M	$5.68B	+12%	$1.57B	$490M	$879M	+27	$744M
2028 Q2E	$3.15B	$1.51B	$489M	$524M	$262M	$5.94B	+11%	$1.66B	$510M	$934M	+27	$772M
2028 Q3E	$3.29B	$1.58B	$490M	$530M	$260M	$6.16B	+11%	$1.73B	$528M	$981M	+27	$791M
2028 Q4E	$3.43B	$1.49B	$492M	$537M	$258M	$6.21B	+11%	$1.74B	$531M	$988M	+27	$779M
2029 Q1E	$3.57B	$1.42B	$494M	$542M	$256M	$6.29B	+11%	$1.77B	$537M	$1.00B	+27	$771M
2029 Q2E	$3.72B	$1.53B	$495M	$547M	$254M	$6.55B	+10%	$1.86B	$558M	$1.06B	+26	$795M
2029 Q3E	$3.86B	$1.61B	$497M	$552M	$253M	$6.77B	+10%	$1.93B	$576M	$1.10B	+26	$810M
2029 Q4E	$4.01B	$1.51B	$498M	$557M	$251M	$6.83B	+10%	$1.94B	$581M	$1.11B	+26	$796M
2030 Q1E	$4.16B	$1.44B	$499M	$561M	$250M	$6.91B	+10%	$1.97B	$587M	$1.13B	+26	$787M
2030 Q2E	$4.31B	$1.56B	$501M	$565M	$249M	$7.18B	+10%	$2.06B	$610M	$1.18B	+26	$807M
2030 Q3E	$4.46B	$1.64B	$502M	$569M	$247M	$7.42B	+10%	$2.14B	$629M	$1.23B	+26	$820M
2030 Q4E	$4.62B	$1.54B	$504M	$573M	$246M	$7.48B	+10%	$2.15B	$634M	$1.24B	+26	$806M

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Track record

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.

Date	Fair value then	Note
2026-08-29	$152.47	Model created from the verified research brief on the 2026 Q2 core-basis segment table. Base case exits at 17x terminal EBITDA on a 9% discount rate.