GLW · Forward model · Optical Communications · Bear case
What has to happen in Optical Communications
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Optical Communications
Optical fibre, cable and connectivity for carrier networks and, increasingly, AI data centres. This is where the Springboard thesis lives: 43.7% of core sales in the basis quarter, growing 32% year over year while the other four segments grew 7.5% combined. Three named hyperscaler agreements underwrite it - Meta (multiyear, up to $6 billion), Amazon (multiyear, multibillion-dollar) and NVIDIA, under which Corning expands US optical connectivity capacity 10x and US fibre capacity by more than 50% across three new plants in North Carolina and Texas. Operating leverage is visible: segment EBITDA margin went from 24.78% to 30.98% in a year.
Latest: $4.62B (2030Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $930M |
| 2024Q2 | $1.11B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.25B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.37B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.35B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.57B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.65B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.70B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.85B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.07B |
| 2026Q3E | $2.20B |
| 2026Q4E | $2.34B |
| 2027Q1E | $2.47B |
| 2027Q2E | $2.61B |
| 2027Q3E | $2.74B |
| 2027Q4E | $2.88B |
| 2028Q1E | $3.01B |
| 2028Q2E | $3.15B |
| 2028Q3E | $3.29B |
| 2028Q4E | $3.43B |
| 2029Q1E | $3.57B |
| 2029Q2E | $3.72B |
| 2029Q3E | $3.86B |
| 2029Q4E | $4.01B |
| 2030Q1E | $4.16B |
| 2030Q2E | $4.31B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.46B |
| 2030Q4E | $4.62B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The 30.98% basis margin is derived from the 10-Q segment table, not disclosed: net sales 2,072 less RD&E 92, depreciation 77 and other segment items 1,338 gives 565 of segment pretax income, plus the 77 of depreciation back = 642 of segment EBITDA.
- Corning names Enterprise Networks and Carrier Networks as the two streams but no longer publishes a dollar split for them - only growth rates (Enterprise +65% year over year in the basis quarter). No split is manufactured here.
- A capacity driver was considered and rejected. The NVIDIA release quantifies the expansion only as '10x' US optical connectivity capacity and 'more than 50%' US fibre capacity, with no base capacity, no completion dates, no utilisation and no revenue per unit; all three would have had to be invented.
- The Amazon and NVIDIA agreements were both announced inside the basis quarter, so almost none of their revenue is in the 2026 Q2 base. Neither has a disclosed annual profile, which is why no dated base shift is used either.