GLW · Forward model · Optical Communications · Springboard 2030 case
What has to happen in Optical Communications
Model as of
This page changes Optical Communications inside the complete GLW model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
Shares this vertical and portfolio case. Slider and horizon edits stay in your browser.
Optical Communications
Optical fibre, cable and connectivity for carrier networks and, increasingly, AI data centres. This is where the Springboard thesis lives: 43.7% of core sales in the basis quarter, growing 32% year over year while the other four segments grew 7.5% combined. Three named hyperscaler agreements underwrite it - Meta (multiyear, up to $6 billion), Amazon (multiyear, multibillion-dollar) and NVIDIA, under which Corning expands US optical connectivity capacity 10x and US fibre capacity by more than 50% across three new plants in North Carolina and Texas. Operating leverage is visible: segment EBITDA margin went from 24.78% to 30.98% in a year.
Latest: $6.94B (2030Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $930M |
| 2024Q2 | $1.11B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.25B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.37B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.35B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.57B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.65B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.70B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.85B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.07B |
| 2026Q3E | $2.25B |
| 2026Q4E | $2.45B |
| 2027Q1E | $2.64B |
| 2027Q2E | $2.85B |
| 2027Q3E | $3.07B |
| 2027Q4E | $3.29B |
| 2028Q1E | $3.53B |
| 2028Q2E | $3.78B |
| 2028Q3E | $4.03B |
| 2028Q4E | $4.30B |
| 2029Q1E | $4.58B |
| 2029Q2E | $4.87B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.18B |
| 2029Q4E | $5.50B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.84B |
| 2030Q2E | $6.19B |
| 2030Q3E | $6.55B |
| 2030Q4E | $6.94B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The 30.98% basis margin is derived from the 10-Q segment table, not disclosed: net sales 2,072 less RD&E 92, depreciation 77 and other segment items 1,338 gives 565 of segment pretax income, plus the 77 of depreciation back = 642 of segment EBITDA.
- Corning names Enterprise Networks and Carrier Networks as the two streams but no longer publishes a dollar split for them - only growth rates (Enterprise +65% year over year in the basis quarter). No split is manufactured here.
- A capacity driver was considered and rejected. The NVIDIA release quantifies the expansion only as '10x' US optical connectivity capacity and 'more than 50%' US fibre capacity, with no base capacity, no completion dates, no utilisation and no revenue per unit; all three would have had to be invented.
- The Amazon and NVIDIA agreements were both announced inside the basis quarter, so almost none of their revenue is in the 2026 Q2 base. Neither has a disclosed annual profile, which is why no dated base shift is used either.